Moving up to NL25 - memo to self

GrumpyB · #1 10-22-2007, 08:15 AM

I have recently moved up from NL10 to NL25, and while I was a winner at NL10 (over 20,000 hands) and started off well at NL25, my figures have just taken a dive into negative territory following 5 straight loosing sessions – an indignity that I never had to suffer at NL10.

No, this isn’t another bankroll question, I’m well enough funded for NL25, but that's never going to help if I turn out a loser at NL25.

I have considered moving back down to NL10, and I may still do so (if nothing else, just to get my confidence back) but I’d like to stick it out at NL25 just a little bit longer as I think the softer NL10 games have given me some bad habits. And therefore this is largely a memo to myself, that I am really only posting here as I am then much more likely to listen to that small voice at the back of my head whispering "you really don't want to do that" just as I click the 'call' button like a raging bull. And then again, maybe I've got it all wrong and someone with more experience has some more sound advice.

So my story is, that after checking my history (I don’t have Poker Tracker, it is not supported on the site I play) the big difference between my NL10 history and my NL25 history is that I am making a lot less on the hands I win and loosing a lot more on the hands I lose.[Wow, there’s a surprises!]

Typically hands look something like this …..

PRE-FLOP I get a premium hand (JJ+, AK, AQs) and open with a 4-5bb bet in EP, or raise 3-4 plus 1 per limper in LP.

Typical NL10 game: 2 or 3 callers

Typical NL25 game: 1 or 2 callers

FLOP Good news: My hand is good. I hit an A or a K/Q with my AK, AQ, or my JJ+ still looks good.

Bad news: Flop is draw heavy.

I stick in a decent raise (three-quarter pot or so) to deny any drawing hands correct pot odds.

Typical NL10 game: 1 or 2 callers

Typical NL25 game: 80% no callers, 20% 1 caller

[Note: Just like 87.378% of all statistics on the internet these figures have been plucked right out of the air – but they feel just about right].

TURN Looks safe, my hand should still be good but I still don’t want to give away a free card, so another three-quarter pot raise.

Typical NL10 game: two callers down to one, or one caller sticks around

Typical NL25 game: caller sticks around

RIVER Unless I get a monster card (to make a full house, for example) I really don’t want to commit any more money into this pot, so I’ll just check and probably call a 10-20% raise. I’d like to think hard before I decide what to do in the face of a bigger raise, but it may be too late – I may already be pot committed.

Typical NL10 game: villain shows down suited A-rag and was chasing a flush, lower pair and was praying for a set, etc. Occasionally (but not often) he really did have a hand.

Typical NL25 game: villain had suited connectors that made two pair on the flop, or a pair that flopped a set.

RESULT

In a NL10 game draw-chasers pay off my premium hands big time!

In a NL25 game 80% of my premium hands get paid off post flop with a pot of 10-18 bb (I win 6-10bb). The rest of the time the pot gets inflated and I frequently end up committing all my chips. OK, I don’t loose EVERY showdown, but most (90%), so the EV looks something like:

EV = 0.8(+8) + 0.2((0.9(-100))+((0.1(+100))) = 5.2 + 0.2(-80) = -10.8

CONCLUSION

OK, as I said at the beginning, this is largely just a memo to myself which I’m sure is really “Doh, well like obviously” to all you experienced players, but which I hope will serve as a reminder to myself to give *some* NL25 player who calls a near pot-sized bet a lot more respects than *most* NL10 player. They really could have my overpair or TPTK beat.

Thank-you for your patience.

PVR · #2 10-22-2007, 10:07 AM

I moved up to NL20/25 myself a couple of months ago and haven't noticed much difference as yet.

raze · #3 10-22-2007, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have considered moving back down to NL10, and I may still do so (if nothing else, just to get my confidence back) but I’d like to stick it out at NL25 just a little bit longer as I think the softer NL10 games have given me some bad habits.

[/ QUOTE ]

It sounds like you're off to a rough start, but you're smart enough to handle it. $10 to $25 is a big jump with a 150% increase in stakes; it's natural to be a little off your game to start. You have to do your best to -pretend- you're just as comfortable as you are at NL10, or your game will be shaky.

Take a day or two and then jump right back in. If it doesn't go so well, there's absolutely nothing wrong with stepping back down for another round of NL10.

JH1 · #4 10-22-2007, 10:58 AM

I'm still working on this as well and I am pretty much in the same situation as you. I'm bouncing back and forth, but mostly sticking to 25NL.

To me it just seems like more of a level adjustment in terms of pot and bet sizes and bankroll as well, as I used to play up to 50NL too. I am well bankrolled for 25NL but it seems like more of a hit than losing a stack at 10NL (ie. 4 buyins at 25NL = 10 buyins of what you are used to at 10NL, whereas 4 buyins at 50NL = 8 buyins at 25NL which doesn't feel quite as bad). That and I find that I have a bit of an aversion to betting past the $1 mark that is standard preflop at 25NL for 4BB+1 although I had no hesitation about doing this at 10NL. To me I think I have to get over playing scared basically.

It seems like the bluff/float percentage goes up a bit as well and I'm a little more paranoid of being pushed off the best hand when villain has air although I'm sure this must be wrong (and it usually is).

I made a similar post to this a little while ago and Rapid Evolution had some good points: Linky

Watching some videos at the 25NL level helped as well: Videos
I think there's some more videos in the one of the NL/PL forum stickies, either micro or small stakes.

kayaker · #5 10-22-2007, 10:59 AM

While I'm sure a lot of that can be attributed to bad luck, I can point out one thing. NL25 does tend to play quite a bit tighter than NL10. If you're getting callers to near or above pot size bets on the flop, they have hit their hand in some way. Especially if they continue past a turn that didn't hit the apparent draws.

<Short version>
TPTK is often a great hand at NL10 and under. It's not always so good at NL25.

Remember that NL25 is typically where people are playing when they are just starting to figure out how to play decently. It's the beginning of the middle ground between the people either just starting out and the permanent losers and those who are actually pretty good. Because of this, it's a bit awkward to play at this level. You'll still have the idiots, but the breakdown between them and the ones who have an idea of how to play shifts a bit. One thing that always helped me was to tighten up (a lot) when I first moved up to a new level. This lessens the variance and helps you get adjusted to the new level without taking too much of a beating if the cards don't go your way.

GrumpyB · #6 10-22-2007, 11:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
... and I'm a little more paranoid of being pushed off the best hand when villain has air although I'm sure this must be wrong (and it usually is).

[/ QUOTE ]

That is SOOOO true - and I'd completely missed it until I saw it written down. Curiously I suspect I am less willing to give up a pot multiplied by 2.5 (moving up from NL10 to NL25) because it looks so juicy I don't want to let it go. So I'm playing looser when I should play tighter. Not because there is a higher bluffing ratio at NL10 but because there are fewer players at this level working out pot odds, plus some who really do think that middle pair with a hopeless kicker really is a winner!

Tighter, tighter, tighter - must play tighter.

Thanks guys. Writing it down helped. Your answers helped more.

ShipitFMA · #7 10-22-2007, 10:42 PM

You're looking too deep into this, the players suck

Foghatlive · #8 10-23-2007, 02:18 AM

Interesting stuff.

One thing you didn't mention was how many tables you play. If you play 4 at NL10, you might want to drop down to say 2 until get more comfortable.

sapol · #9 10-23-2007, 05:11 AM

I agree there is a slight difference in the level of play between NL10 and NL25 but it depends on the site.
I think that in NL25 players are less willing to go broke with top pair so you might want to adjust to that

JH1 · #10 10-23-2007, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree there is a slight difference in the level of play between NL10 and NL25 but it depends on the site.
I think that in NL25 players are less willing to go broke with top pair so you might want to adjust to that

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

I find that the more players on a site, the less difference in level changes. Party and Stars are not a huge difference but some of the other slightly smaller sites are quite noticeable to me anyways.