Rundown Differences

[CrushinFelt]

What are the fundamental differences between different types of rundown hands?

For instance, the strength of

JT98 (full run)
4568 (top gap)
4678 (bottom gap)
4578 (middle gap)

That last hand is one of the main reasons I ask. It sure looks like a good rundown when someone has raised in front of me, but I have a feeling it is a lot less powerful than the other rundowns. Also, is there an inherent difference between the top gap and bottom gap hands.

And I don't give a [censored] if they're not called those things.

[iggymcfly]

The top gap is the worst because it's more likely to make non-nut wraps when it hits. I haven't analyzed the probabilities specifically or anything, but I do know that full run > bottom gap > middle gap > top gap.

[TomCowley]

The top gap hands play a LOT worse when somebody could be in there with a similar hand, since it's a lot harder to flop nut draws on the high end. I'm going to change JT98 to 8765 so we don't run into the edge of the deck.

With 8765

234, 345, 346, 347, 456, 457, 458, 467, 468, 569, 579, 69T are the nuts (12)

679, 789, 79T, 89T, 9TJ aren't (5).

34, 45, 46, 47, 56, 57, 58 (7) are all monster flops (12+ outs to nut straight or boat) as well, plus plenty more strong flops with non-nut draws.

With 8764:

235, 345, 356, 357, 456, 457, 458, 569, 579, 69T (10) are the nuts

567, 568, 79T, 89T, 9TJ aren't (5).

35, 45, 56, 57, 58 (5) are monster flops

So 8764 is like a baby version of 8765. It just flops a little worse.

With 8754:

A23, 236, 346, 356, 367, 456, 467, 468, 569, 69T (10) are the nuts

567, 568, 678, 679, 689, JT9 (6) aren't

36, 46, 56 (3) are monster flops (and 67/68/69 are big to nonnut draws)

So you flop about the same for straights, but you only hit 60% of the nut draws.

With 8654:

A23, 234, 235, 236, 347, 357, 367, 457, 478, 579 (10) are the nuts

567, 678, 679, 789, 79T (5) aren't

23, 47 (2) are monster flops (57/67/78/79 have a ton of nonnut outs).


So if you just care about making a straight (say you give opp AAKK and are trying to crack it), the 3 gap hands are equivalent. If you're worried about someone else having cards in the same range, then drawing to the nuts is vital, and the bottom gap hand is MUCH better at flopping 2 cards that give strong nut draws and the top gap is clearly the worst. Top gap is much more of a trouble hand than bottom gap (and middle gap is in between). Note that flopping the strong draws is a better indicator of hand strength since you're much more likely to hit a 2-card combination on the flop (a draw) than a 3-card combination for a made straight.

[CrushinFelt]

Exactly what I was looking for, thanks.