bloomberg quits GOP. easy GOP victory?

[smbruin22]

sorry to post it here, as it's not sports-related... but one of the articles i read seemed to think that this makes the GOP prohibitive favorites. i guess the thinking being that bloomberg will siphon off the disenchanted vote (i was personally wondering if it'll siphon off the republican vote in new york... moderate effect outside NY on either theory).

here's the article... and the quotes.... SORRY DIDN'T REALIZE IT WAS REPUBLICAN WHO SAID IT VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES THE ELECTION)

"If he runs, this guarantees a Republican will be the next president of the United States. The Democrats have to be shaking in their boots," said Greg Strimple, a Republican strategist in New York who is unaligned in the race.

The belief among some operatives is that Bloomberg's moderate positions would siphon votes from the Democratic nominee. Others say it's not clear and his impact would depend on the nominees.

Former Democratic Party Chairman Donald Fowler said Bloomberg would be "a disturbing factor to both parties," but the mayor would probably draw more Republican votes simply because "Republicans are more disenchanted than Democrats."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070619/...mberg_politics

[NajdorfDefense]

He is a lifelong Dem, running as a Rep in NYC for mayor is simply to avoid the primaries.

This would hurt Hilary much more than Rudy due to the Electoral College. Hilary has no shot at Texas, whereas in a 3-way race now NY and Calif are very much up for grabs and a plurality of votes gets 100% of Electoral votes.

[smbruin22]

najdorf, thank you!

[NajdorfDefense]

Note I am not predicting an 'easy' Repub victory or anything of the sort if Bloomy runs a serious campaign, but certainly better odds than +150/160 that I've seen in the past. JMHO.