NL25 FR: Do I have to call this river?

jmillerdls · #1 11-01-2006, 03:35 PM

Seems like he's blocking with a flush draw, and then just bluffing the river...but I get burned by calling river bets a lot, so I'm getting a bit gunshy. What do you guys think?

Also, how is the hand played up until there? Just call the turn maybe? Looking back, I'm guessing $4-5 on the flop would have been more appropriate.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
8 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, MP1 calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4, 3 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $1, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($10, 2 players)
MP1 bets $1, Hero raises to $6, MP1 calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($22, 2 players)
MP1 is all-in $14.2

Imrahil · #2 11-01-2006, 03:42 PM

Raise to $5 on the flop. I think I'd raise to about 11 on the turn, or depending on what villain has left, push the turn. I would call the river as it doesn't make sense why he wouldn't 3bet the turn with a very good hand. That two couldn't have helped him.

Dave I · #3 11-01-2006, 03:56 PM

This is a monster or at least > TPTK.

I have a same-bet theory. The theory goes when someone bets the same amount on two streets you should raise 100% of the time W/ATC. Especially on drawy boards. 95% of the time it is a weak hand/draw and they fold. If they call then lead big (big for them) like here, you are almost never ahead with just a pair.

jmillerdls · #4 11-01-2006, 04:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a monster or at least > TPTK.

I have a same-bet theory. The theory goes when someone bets the same amount on two streets you should raise 100% of the time W/ATC. Especially on drawy boards. 95% of the time it is a weak hand/draw and they fold. If they call then lead big (big for them) like here, you are almost never ahead with just a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you are right, I folded...thinking along the same lines as what you wrote. However, after looking back on it, I started second guessing myself.

Imrahil · #5 11-01-2006, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a monster or at least > TPTK.

I have a same-bet theory. The theory goes when someone bets the same amount on two streets you should raise 100% of the time W/ATC. Especially on drawy boards. 95% of the time it is a weak hand/draw and they fold. If they call then lead big (big for them) like here, you are almost never ahead with just a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying villain is weak by betting small twice but then you're saying he has TPTK beat. What is it?

ChipStorm · #6 11-01-2006, 04:08 PM

Make a pot-sized raise on the flop, to $7. That flop is draw-heavy, and you're not pricing anyone out of anything with a $2 raise.

n1nj4.br · #7 11-01-2006, 04:13 PM

push turn.

Dave I · #8 11-01-2006, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a monster or at least > TPTK.

I have a same-bet theory. The theory goes when someone bets the same amount on two streets you should raise 100% of the time W/ATC. Especially on drawy boards. 95% of the time it is a weak hand/draw and they fold. If they call then lead big (big for them) like here, you are almost never ahead with just a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying villain is weak by betting small twice but then you're saying he has TPTK beat. What is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying that the vast, vast majority of the time he is weak when he makes that second small bet. We raise, he calls then leads big is included in the vast, vast minority of the time he is not weak. Make sense?

Imrahil · #9 11-01-2006, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a monster or at least > TPTK.

I have a same-bet theory. The theory goes when someone bets the same amount on two streets you should raise 100% of the time W/ATC. Especially on drawy boards. 95% of the time it is a weak hand/draw and they fold. If they call then lead big (big for them) like here, you are almost never ahead with just a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying villain is weak by betting small twice but then you're saying he has TPTK beat. What is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am saying that the vast, vast majority of the time he is weak when he makes that second small bet. We raise, he calls then leads big is included in the vast, vast minority of the time he is not weak. Make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes