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#32
08-30-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: This is an insta.....
josh, people want to shove here because all of the made hands that we are stacking off on the turn with (AK+, presumably other Kx) are definitely stacking off on the flop. in addition to possibly inducing a thin call from a PP <Kx, he could get us to shove a draw by putting more action in on the flop.
if he has us beat 86 is much more likely than a set and we'll see delayed semibluffs enough (against which we have greatly increased equity on the turn) to make shoving OK. all that aside, people play badly and i would expect a "badly" played set more than a badly played semibluff, so it's still close. 
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#35
08-30-2007, 08:43 PM
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Re: This is an insta.....
Justin,
All valid points. My problem with this hand though is the smallish turn c/r. Also I am not convinced that a set played this way is played poorly at all. Because of the dry board, it allows for more FPS by him. Your point about stacking off on the flop with this hand....Yes I will almost always. But I'm not sure it is fair to say that because you will do one action on the flop justifies doing it on the turn. Because the turn was a blank actually makes me more wary of this line taken by him then if it was an action card. And again, him having TP doesn't fit with this line. I absolutely won't discount it from his range but I think it is fair to say that it lurkes way down at the bottom.
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#36
08-30-2007, 09:30 PM
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Re: This is an insta.....
This is 33 or 66 pretty often, k8 shouldnt really be in his range, might be 86. A small % of the time it will be a delayed semibluff with a FD as pointed already, and it's not that badly done as it's almost the same as going all in from our point of view because it commits us if we call, so that has to have some good FE and a good player might exploit it.
Readless it's a very tough spot, decide upon tilt level. Fold against a nit, shove otherwise is what i'd do.
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#39
08-30-2007, 10:55 PM
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Re: This is an insta.....
I'm a huge station, and I would fold this unless I had a read or villain was a total monkey. Given the action, I think you're looking at a set here a ton. fold>call>shove IMO.
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