2008 Presidential primaries thread

[El Diablo]

OK, everyone. Here's the deal. This is going to be one of the most interesting primaries in a long time.

On the Republican side, Rudy and John McCain are looking into things, along with tons of other white guys who have been Senators/Congressman/Governors/etc. I don't think this side of the race is actually all that interesting until things get far later down the road, but it'll be interesting to see how Rudy fares in his jump to this level of politics.

The Dems side is where we have the real action. Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama both in the game. Have we finally gotten to the point where there are actually viable female and black candidates for President? Or when it comes down to actually choosing, are we gonna end up with Biden or Edwards or Kucinich or some other white guy with lots of political experience?

While I've read lots of stuff on Hilary and Barack, I haven't really studied this stuff much yet and haven't followed the primary projections or how the experts see this stuff falling out.

This seems like a good time to start. Would like to hear form those of you really into this as well as people like me who aren't very informed on this yet, but are interested in starting to follow this stuff more closely.

[Ron Burgundy]

Post deleted by [censored]

[mrkilla]

The Dems are going to explore Obama and Hilary but in the end they won't get the nod.
The only way they "might" stand a chance is if Rudy runs. A Catholic, Italian from NY who married his cousin, cheated and divorced his wife will have a tough time making friends in middle america but the Rep know it and probably won't give him the green.

It's most likely going to be Edwards for the Dem's its the logical choice. For the Rep. McCain has to be it so far.

[cobrakai111]

Let the Obama'rama begin!

A few other "big" names to consider that El D didn't mention:

Gore
Richardson

Hagel
Romney
Bloomberg (who doesn't want to see this man spend half a billion)

Moneylines:
Al Gore 3-1
Al Sharpton 1000-1
Alan Keyes 750-1
Alberto Gonzales 75-1
Arnold Schwarzenegger 250-1
Barack Obama 6-1
Bill Clinton 300-1
Bill Frist 100-1
Bill Maher 2500-1
Bill OReilly 750-1
Bill Owens 50-1
Bill Richardson 12-1
Bob Ehrlich 75-1
Bob Graham 150-1
Bob Kerrey 50-1
Charles Schumer 75-1
Chris Dodd 50-1
Chuck Hagel 22-1
Clint Eastwood 750-1
Colin Powell 25-1
Condoleezza Rice 30-1
Dennis Kucinich 200-1
Dick Cheney 75-1
Dick Gephardt 75-1
Donald Rumsfeld 2000-1
Donald Trump 2500-1
Elizabeth Dole 750-1
Evan Bayh 20-1
Gary Locke 70-1
George Allen Jr 10-1
George Pataki 50-1
George W Bush 200-1
Harold Ford Jr 75-1
Hillary Clinton 1-1
Howard Dean 75-1
Jack Kemp 75-1
James Carville 1000-1
Jay Rockefeller 100-1
Jeb Bush 100-1
Jesse Jackson 200-1
Jesse Ventura 1000-1
Joe Biden 30-1
Joe Lieberman 150-1
John Ashcroft 1500-1
John Edwards 8-1
John Kerry 50-1
John McCain 3-1
Laura Bush 1000-1
Mark Warner 15-1
Michael Bloomberg 150-1
Michael Moore 7500-1
Mike Gravel 50-1
Mike Huckabee 20-1
Mitt Romney 10-1
Newt Gingrich 40-1
Pat Robertson 2000-1
Paul Bremmer 150-1
Paul Wolfowitz 750-1
Ralph Nader 100-1
Rick Santorum 50-1
Rudy Giuliani 10-1
Russ Feingold 40-1
Sam Brownback 10-1
Ted Kennedy 750-1
Tom Daschle 50-1
Tom Ridge 50-1
Tom Tancredo 50-1
Tom Vilsack 40-1
Tommy Franks 200-1
Wesley Clark 20-1

ED: I'm leaving this up because it does have some interesting names, but it also has some stupid joke ones too. Let's avoid turning this into a "PAT ROBERTSON NO WAY" "RALPH NADER 100-1 HAHAHHA" or whatever type thread. Generally, no content responses like that are just gonna get deleted to keep the discussion on track, thanks.

[Los Feliz Slim]

I find it impossible to believe that Americans will elect Barack Hussein Obama POTUS. His skin color, his name, his relative lack of experience will be way too much to overcome. I wish it weren't so, but I think it is.

Clinton is more realistic, and has enormous financial resources. She can come off like such a shrew, though, and has that "political operative" feel about her that so many people hate.

I still think that Al Gore is going to come out of the shadows at some point in the near future. Nominated for a Nobel prize, hit movie, much better public perception than in the past...I think it's all there. He's my horse for now.

[iron81]

My analysis of the top tier of Democratic candidates:

Hillary: Odds on favorite, I put her at about 40% to win the nomination. She has 4 major advantages:

Money - The babble I'm hearing from those who know say you need to raise a minimum of $50 million to have a good shot at winning. Hillary is the only Dem candidate I'm sure can raise that much. She's got something like $15 million in her warchest from her last Senate race which she won in a walk.

Name recognition - Hillary is the best known candidate in the Dem field, and the only candidate besides Edwards who is widely known in the country

Well defined support base - Hillary is the only major Dem candidate who is a centrist, with the rest of the field trying to flank her on the left. This will attract moderates and independents who vote in the Dem primary and it will also allow her to make the "most electable" argument, although its doubtful that will succeed due to the hatred of her from the right.

Resume - Hillary has the strongest resume of any of the candidates. 8 years in the White House and 8 years in the Senate focusing on defense issues has her well positioned to claim she would be the best Commander in Chief.

Obama - Maybe 30% to win

Anti-war - He can lay claim to being the strongest anti-war candidate because he was opposed to the war from the start and his current leadership in the Senate in trying to bring the troops home. The war is very unpopular and if a voter wants to vote single issue against the war, he'll vote Obama.

Charisma - This is the reason Obama ever made it to this stage. The Democratic base loves Obama. Here's an antidote I originally shared in the Politics forum:

[ QUOTE ]
Obamamania truly began when he participated in a debate during the Democratic Primary for the Senate in the town I was living in (I'm kicking myself that I didn't go). At the time, no one had ever heard of him and he was about 6th in a 9 person field. The purpose of the debate was to gain the endorsement of the local Democratic party which was obtained by a vote among the attendees at the debate. By the time he was through, something like 70% of the participants voted for him. He went on to absolutely dominate the crowded Democratic primary and the general election. This wasn't because of any institutional support or name recognition, it's because Obama is the man.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obama is smart, well educated and as well versed in policy as someone can be with his inexperience. Before he was elected to the Senate, he taught Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago. The fact that he's black will also get him votes from Blacks and other people who want to advance the civil rights agenda.

John Edwards - About %15 to win.

The economy - If the "Its the economy, stupid." slogan holds true, Edwards will win. His bread and butter is the "Two Americas" analogy where he says that some people get ahead where the rest (his constituency) falls behind. This tactic has had a profound resonance among Democrats and propelled Edwards to 2nd in 2004.

Also, Edwards has a good mixture of the positives that Hillary and Obama enjoy. He's smart and charismatic like Obama, but he has the network and the experience to hit the ground running, an organization that Obama has to build from scratch. The thing with Edwards is that he has Hillary on his right and Obama on his left, it will be hard to stake out a position that distinguishes him from both of them.

I'll analyze the GOP field next.

[cbloom]

My thoughts on the majors :

In general, the democrats should have a huge edge to take the presidency if they can field a decent candidate. All the momentum & popular opinion is on their side (but it was in 2004 too and they failed to field a decent candidate).

Barack : no realistic chance of even being the democratic nominee; too little experience and America won't elect anyone who's not white

Hillary : it's quit possible she'll be the democratic nominee but no way she wins the general. Too much negative baggage, plus she's not good at taking a strong stance and sticking to it which much of America demands.

Giuliani : no chance of even getting the nomination. Way way too much bad baggage, mistresses, scandals, etc.

McCain : again no chance, he's too much outside the party mainstream & he won't have the support of the party power structure which is what gets people elected

All the crazies have no chance of course.

Hillary could be a disaster for dems. Even if she doesn't win she's going to sap funding away from potential winners. Same thing for Barack.

[cobrakai111]

I mentioned him in my post but I would love if someone more knowledgable could give me some more insight on Chuck Hagel. All I know right now is he's a pro-life conservate and one of the first to come out against the war. I've always been a staunch lefty but a potential condidate like him intrigues me.

[SlowHabit]

I don't know a lot about politics but I have a hard time imagining the phrase "ladies and gentlemen, put your hands together for the president of the United States -- Barack Hussein Obama."

It also doesn't help that Borat was created.

[econophile]

don't forget my boy mitt romney.



it takes some doing for a republican to become governer of mass. i don't think he has much national name recognition though, and he is a mormon, which might be a hard sell for the large christian republican voting bloc.