Hand from $1500 WSOP PL

[nath]

You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

[morello]

Ugh. I really like raising here if we are just a tad bit deeper. With only 5800 to raise, I suspect they will just shrug and make some "pot odds" based called. If you could raise 8k more, I think you would see a lot more folds. Even still, it's pretty close, especially given your tight image. I like the preflop raise.

[Mench]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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I like it and would play the exact same on the flop. Problem is I run bad, and they always call/hold.

[NHFunkii]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

[djk123]

I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

[curtains]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

[THEOSU]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

[nath]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

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I think it's more of a gradation, i.e. the higher the pair gets the more likely he is to raise it PF. I think 66 is that much likelier to be opened than 44-22, at least enough to weigh it appropriately when deciding whether or not to move in here (not just for the equity when called bu tthe likelihood he folds 22-44 more than 66).

[curtains]

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You know what, I kinda like push, because the more I think about it the more likely it seems that he opens with 66

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eh I think the vast majority of people play 22-44 exactly the same as they play 66. seems like 77 or 88 is sort of the border of 'I might hit an overpair with this hand so I should raise' for a lot of people. I might have just made that up though.

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I think it's more of a gradation, i.e. the higher the pair gets the more likely he is to raise it PF. I think 66 is that much likelier to be opened than 44-22, at least enough to weigh it appropriately when deciding whether or not to move in here (not just for the equity when called bu tthe likelihood he folds 22-44 more than 66).

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Funny I just posted exactly the same thing but decided to not post it at the last second.

[curtains]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

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Yeah I think its an option, just a difficult one to evaluate. Also I could get two free cards if he gets scared on the turn and does something like check when a 9 or 8 comes. btw please note that if a 7 comes I have the best hand, and the guy probably isn't going to try to bluff me off of it, unless hes a really optimistic guy.