Hand from $1500 WSOP PL

curtains · #1 06-04-2007, 01:07 AM

We have about 150 people left out of original 780.

I had about 10.5k in chips. Someone from 3 off the button with like 25k in chips limps for 600. (blinds are 300-600). The guy seemed relatively normal, not terrible or anything but not great either? I have QTh on the button. I can either call or raise, and due to my tight image I elected to raise to 2600 and because I didn't think the limper had that big a hand and because I want 1500 chips please. They called. The flop came 755 with one heart. They bet out for 2000. I have 7800 left. Your turn.

Eagles · #2 06-04-2007, 01:10 AM

This is very close. Any live reads?

bigj0e03 · #3 06-04-2007, 01:13 AM

people never fold, so if you think you have pot odds but I don't think they ever fold.

curtains · #4 06-04-2007, 01:18 AM

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This is very close. Any live reads?

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Felt he had some pair. Didn't know if he'd fold it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

adanthar · #5 06-04-2007, 01:30 AM

they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

Eagles · #6 06-04-2007, 01:32 AM

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people never fold, so if you think you have pot odds but I don't think they ever fold.

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I was thinking this. The only reason I shove would be if you felt villain would bet to find out where he was and than fold.

curtains · #7 06-04-2007, 01:33 AM

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

curtains · #8 06-04-2007, 01:33 AM

Screw this Im impatient, going to post all my analysis from my LJ now, was going to wait longer but anyway:

I had about 10.5k in chips. Someone from 3 off the button with like 25k in chips limps for 600. (blinds are 300-600). I have QTh on the button. I can either call or raise, and due to my tight image I elected to raise to 2600 and because I didn't think the limper had that big a hand. They called. The flop came 755 with one heart. They bet out for 2000. I can raise them like 5800 more, which is what I eventually elected to do.

They thought for quite a bit and ended up calling with 44, which is actually not that bad a result for me, giving me close to 40% equity. But ok I knew when pushing that he was very likely to have some pair, so let's be generous and give him 66. In that situation I have about 28% equity. In the actual hand I should be willing to push if I knew his cards (44). If he has 66 or something I am no longer able to do that if I know they are very likely to call. (which is around where I thought he'd be, but more likely to have 22-44 than 88, as I think he'd have very likely raised the bigger pairs PF.)

Anyway in that circumstance, the pot is 8100 when I put in my final raise of 5800 more. So let's say he folds just 20% of the time:

I will profit 5500 immediately 20% of the time (The other 2600 in the pot was mine from preflop).
The other 80% of the time I will have 28% of 21700. So:

57.6% of the time I will lose my final 7800
22.4% of the time I will win a huge pot and gain the 11,300 that's in the pot.

So .2* 5500 = 1100
.224* 11300 = 2531.2

for a total of 3631.2

subtracted by

57.6* 7800 = 4492.8

So in this scenario moving allin would cost me 800 chips on average, assuming I'm not a math idiot, which is about 25-35% likely to be true. I do think this is relatively close to a worst case scenario, especially given that he had 44 in the hand, which made it a very clear +EV play for me if he folds just 20% of the time. Also okay maybe he folds more than that since I'm tight, I was certainly banking on it when I moved allin, but knew that it's not the complete end of life when they do call.

Anyway I dunno, it feels like the entire hand was okay, but if someone can dispute the math/analysis please do so, because I don't want to be guilty of erroneously justifying my own play. I of course didn't do all these calculations while playing, I just sort of estimated and decided to go allin. I know that these overcards vs underpair situations are often reasonable because they don't have to fold that often for it to be correct. Just want to make sure I'm thinking clearly right after getting all the chips in with Queen High.

btw other option is to flat call flop and bet any broadway turn card. Seems a little too exotic to me somehow, but who knows maybe it's not the worst thing ever.

adanthar · #9 06-04-2007, 01:36 AM

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

curtains · #10 06-04-2007, 01:37 AM

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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Well its crucual because we win about 40% of the time against the lower pairs, which is really a lot. But we win much less against 66 :/