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  #21  
Old 02-24-2007, 03:04 AM
SumZero SumZero is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

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Honestly I don't believe anyone but Lakisha or Melinda will win. I'd say the combined chance of them winning is around 75-85% I could be overestimating a little bit, but I simply think they outclass everyone else by too large a margin, especially the boys.

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Based on one performance and limited audition tapes you're willing to give those two as 3-1 favorites over the 18 other contestants combined?!

I think you are crazy. I'm not sure I'd give 3-1 on the winner being a girl.
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  #22  
Old 02-24-2007, 03:16 AM
pokerpunchout pokerpunchout is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

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Granny, I respect your oppinions on Idol immensly, and have followed you and road your coatails the last 2 years,but I would be shocked if Stacey does not make the top 10. If you look at his Dialidol scores he was easily in the top 10 the first week. He is also from the south and has a serious, commited type A worker personality. If he sets himself apart from the pop crowd and goes more towards rock, this will garner him votes from the "rock" crowd. Will this be enough to win ... most likely no. I agree with you the winner will probably be Lakisha (at least it looks like it so far). I am just saying there are ways to hedge bets and I believe that there is money to be made on people like Stacey and Richardson trading at 3 - 5 right now.
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  #23  
Old 02-24-2007, 04:17 AM
Ruprecht Ruprecht is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

Sabrina Sloan can sing. Suggesting that she should be 200-1 is ridiculous. Betting against a good singer like Sabrina, especially when her stock is not that high, is just going to burn you.
So are the assumptions being made after just one week. For 3 weeks, they get to pick songs that they can sing well (that does not bode well for some who still were a mess), and you will see many train wrecks as they get into theme weeks.
Others will get derailed due to poor song selection. It happens every year.
There is another situation developing.....on the girls' side, Lakisha, Melinda, Jordin and Stephanie (all good singers.....Melinda and Lakisha were simply outstanding in week 1) may be similar to Latoya London, Fantasia, and J Hudson, whose style and song choices (and yes, race ) were cancelling each other out, voting-wise.
Add in both blatant and subtle manipulation by the judges and producers (Last year, Daughtry got smoke and lasers every week, and there was an intervention to save Elliott), and you have more of a horserace than some here are suggesting.

You are going to get burned if you think week 1 is how it is going to go all year.
On the boys' side, Brandon, the guy who has sung backup for some stars, obviously has some talent. (They don't hire bad singers for backup). He also has shown real comfort on stage. Priced very low now, but could have a lot of upside.
On the girls' side, Lakisha deserves the favorite's role for now, but can she change it up, or will she just belt out every song ? Melinda has virtually perfect control of her voice, and is comfortable on stage. But she may skew to an older demographic and/or suffer from the 4 soul-divas cancelling each other out.
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  #24  
Old 02-24-2007, 09:44 AM
4Tay 4Tay is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

Great analysis Ruprecht. I agree that eventually Melinda, Lakisha, Jordin, and Stephanie will have their votes cancelled out. As for Brandon, he got criticized for singing a safe song. He definitely has the talent to bring down the house this week.

I think Sabrina's a bit overpriced. She had a great performance last week, which boosted her price to 7 10. However, looking at DialIdol and checking out the AI forums, I don't think she has enough of a following to keep her out of the bottom rung.
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  #25  
Old 02-24-2007, 12:23 PM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

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I think there is money to be made on Phil Stacey. I see him as a a good candidate to make the top 5. If he does this his sell price will be no less than 10 to 12.

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i honestly think he has no chance of top 10

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Granny, I respect your oppinions on Idol immensly, and have followed you and road your coatails the last 2 years,but I would be shocked if Stacey does not make the top 10. If you look at his Dialidol scores he was easily in the top 10 the first week. He is also from the south and has a serious, commited type A worker personality. If he sets himself apart from the pop crowd and goes more towards rock, this will garner him votes from the "rock" crowd. Will this be enough to win ... most likely no. I agree with you the winner will probably be Lakisha (at least it looks like it so far). I am just saying there are ways to hedge bets and I believe that there is money to be made on people like Stacey and Richardson trading at 3 - 5 right now.

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here is what i think is going on with phil.

1. the other guys sucked so bad that the judges and voters were looking for someone to praise.

2. i think his performance was forgettable (i seriously forgot it already)

3. i think that there are weeks that a sub-par contestant rises to the top of DI. i think this was simply such a week.

he does not excite me or even amuse me. he may make top ten, but certainly not better than 8th-ish.

BOOK IT


edit: i think you are probably right that chris r is a good hedge, and those looking to hedge or diversify would be nuts to pass him up at 3-5. it's just that i don't hedge. i own very few contestants, and only one female. this may be the year that granny crashes and burns, who knows? but i stand by my picks (and NON picks)
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  #26  
Old 02-24-2007, 01:47 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

In the past few years you can generally pick 2-3 people who will win, and one of those people will win. You can do this after one performance. Fantasia, Carrie, Ruben are all very clear examples of this. I personally thought Taylor wouldn't win, but I was wrong that year and shouldn't have ignored his huge fanbase. However if I had to pick 3 people last year who may win, they would have clearly been: Chris, Katherine and Taylor in that order.

I don't think it's at all unreasonable to pick 2-3 people who have a legitimate chance and say that everyone else is pretty much in big trouble.

I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all, she is clearly inferior to the other good singers, despite one good performance.That combined with her personality problems in comparison to them, gives her basically zero chance. I think she may not even make the final 12, although hopefully she does.

Also Phil Stacey was not good and also has basically zero chance. Sanjaya is more likely to win than Phil IMO, because if Sanjaya has a few good performances (which he probably isn't capable of), he would actually become a major force. Phil would be forgettable, maybe sneak into 4th-5th place or so at absolute best.
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  #27  
Old 02-24-2007, 02:43 PM
Ruprecht Ruprecht is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

Curtains,

"I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all,"

You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic.
I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing.
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  #28  
Old 02-24-2007, 03:57 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

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Curtains,

"I also stand by Sabrina being 200-1 to win it all,"

You wouldn't stand by that price for real cash, so it is sort of silly. Whether you like Sabrina or not, she is a good singer. And she makes her living by singing. 200-1 is absurd, and not at all realistic.
I didn't care for her first week performance, but she can sing.

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I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close.
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  #29  
Old 02-24-2007, 04:03 PM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

I agree that she doesn't seem like she can win right now, but I don't think we've seen enough to determine this.
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  #30  
Old 02-24-2007, 04:07 PM
Ruprecht Ruprecht is offline
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Default Re: People who are overpriced

"I wouldnt give 200-1 on a 1000-1 shot so who really cares. I honestly don't think 200-1 is not realistic at all. She has no chance in hell to win, its not even close"

Based on what ? If you really know anything about singing, you would know that she is a very good singer. Doesn't matter if you don't like her looks or style-- she can really sing.
Why would a good singer have "no chance in hell " ? That's absurd. You are unlikely to be cashing a lot of tickets when your objectivity gets so out of whack.
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