I have a problem folding sets--44 flop fold

[jrbick]

OK, but this guy's an 18/12

Point: his hand range for this kind of flop is pretty narrow. His last rr shows that he wants it ai. If we aren't folding, I think we're pushing.

jrbick

[Megenoita]

Two things Big Jim. One, idiots don't fold top 2. And I doubt most tags would, either. They'd put me on AA/KK, and with all that money in, they put the rest in. Two, that you don't fold sets, ever, isn't good reasoning for me to put all my money in. The question is if in this situation, with this villain, putting it in is +EV.

[Megenoita]

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why are you re raising his bet so much on the flop from 50 to 190

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It's not even a pot sized raise, and the board is super draw heavy.

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That's easy. I was playing 6+ tables and had action at a few, and I'm in a new location where I'm at a desk. I tried to raise pot, but was running out of time. My goal was to raise pot FWIW.

[Megenoita]

The argument that folding a set, ever, is a small leak at best, is of course valid. But I still want to play the best poker I can.

For anyone that puts him on a hand we beat, I don't see how. For AhQh, IMO, he'd c/r all in, or c/r big. That's how you get the most FE and value. The bet/3-bet play is for sets and nut straights. I really think that's key here.

[Big_Jim]

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The question is if in this situation, with this villain, putting it in is +EV.

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OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Thanks for explaining that.

[Megenoita]

No prob, and now that I have, have you anything constructive? Don't fold sets, ever? Is that about it?

[Big_Jim]

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No prob, and now that I have, have you anything constructive? Don't fold sets, ever? Is that about it?

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Apparently. You don't seem to like my alternate line, which gives you more information and a chance to re-evauate, so yeah, apparently.

I told you I didn't mind the fold, and what I would honestly do. I have no idea what else you expect me to say, here.

[Megenoita]

Oh, I'm sorry. I missed your alternate line. At first glance, I don't like your line because the only hands I beat are ones I want to push on the flop. If I just call and the turn is a flush card, and they have a higher set, I wonder if I really do get to SD any cheaper. That's a good question. But I tend to think that they'll put me on more than a FD and they'll push, anyway, as the pot is huge. (I assume you're talking about just calling his 3-bet on the flop). I just think it gives me more ways to play worse [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. But that's at first glance...I'll def. think it over.

[GLmaestro]

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Two, that you don't fold sets, ever, isn't good reasoning for me to put all my money in.

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Honestly dude, this is enough reasoning. Also I can promise you that you're gonna see AA/KK often enough in this spot, even against tight 2p2ers.

[mikechops]

Board: 4d 5h 7h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.4222 % 52.49% 00.93% { 4c4h }
Hand 2: 46.5778 % 45.65% 00.93% { 77-55, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah6h, Ah3h, Ah2h, 9h8h, 86s, 75s }

If you decide to play for stacks and he calls with NFDs, over sets, top two and combo draws you are ahead. Throw in AA/KK some of the time and it gets better.

I can't see folding a set for 150BB.

Edit... He's short. No way can I fold.... Edit again... misread it, villain is SB.. still not folding, but it's closer.