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  #1  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:05 PM
bfactor bfactor is offline
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Default FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit? If you’re winning, be happy.\"

This makes no sense to me. Why is it generally considered to be weird or illogical to ask what a terrible, bad, medium bad, medium, medium good, good, great, excellent, and world class long term winrate would be for heads-up nlhe. I mean, in the SNG forums you constantly see people discussing what kinds of ROI's seem to be normal and acheivable for a player of such and such skill level, and it kind of makes sense that human beings discuss this.

Think about it... say you were in college and you were trying to major in something so that you could go get a job in that field when you graduated. Say you were an electrical engineering major. Say you made a post like this, in some electrical engineering forum:

Hey guys. I just graduated from college with an electrical engineering degree, what would a good realistic salary be for me if I graduated in the top 5% of my class. Thanks.

Would these responses seem normal or logical to you?:

Re: Salary:

Hey, if you are making more than $0 a year, you should be happy. Any positive salary is a good salary.

Re2: Salary:

Hey, don't focus on what a normal and acheivable salary is for you, just try to focus on the day to day tasks and hope that you get paid a salary



Lol, as you can see, these would be kinda silly responses in this similar scenario, yet for some reason, everyone seems to think these are the types of responses they should give in winrate discussions.

I strongly disagree with this fad, and I hope that one day people can grow up and be willing to talk about this taboo subject. I mean, porn used to be taboo, and now its not, well kinda not, and now I can look at hot asian chicks on teh interweb. See, getting rid of taboos is fun. Come on guys, who's with me!!?!?? Lolz.

-bfactor
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  #2  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:14 PM
Somekid Somekid is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

I think people talk about ROI on here a fair amount. Also in poker, the overwhelming majority of people lose money. So the comparison you make to people talking about salaries, where everybody makes money (I hope), doesn't really work.
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  #3  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:18 PM
bfactor bfactor is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

Uh, the analogy totally works though, because just like in poker, the vast majority of people will fail at getting a high paying professional job, like being an engineer etc.

Most people will end up doing something like being a gardener, a plumber, a trash man, a waiter, a small time construction worker, bottom level employee at some large company etc etc etc. Most people DO NOT end up being a lawyer/doctor/engineer/scientist/etc. Just like how in poker you need to do a lot of studying, get a lot of experience, be intelligent, be patient, blah blah blah the same goes for getting a high class dayjob, its the same thing. So although for most people the answer would be "gl holmes you'll probably fail" the answer for people who actually went to college, studied hard, did internships etc is kinda different from the answer for the avg person. This is because the latter described person actually put themselves in a position to not fail, and now they wanna know how much money is normal for someone LIKE THEM to make. I thought the analogy worked fine, but I guess I could be wrong.

-bfactor
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  #4  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:41 PM
PenixSkeet PenixSkeet is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

I completely agree with you here bfactor.

We are both trying to figure out what our win rate should be for HU SNGs. It doesn't seem like a difficult question.

We come here for help, and don't exactly get a lot of it.
Your analogy is head on.

I'm going to do some looking on the interweb I'll PM you with any win rates I can find, if you don't mind the PM obv.
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  #5  
Old 11-14-2007, 06:54 PM
bfactor bfactor is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

I actually don't care much about hu sngs personally. I already know about hu sng roi's as I did research on it in the past, so I know what kinds of longterm ROI's are normal for various skill levels etc. What I DO NOT know much about is winrate for hu nl CASH GAMES. I can't find anything on it anywhere.

So far I've looked for the following, and have NEVER found anything interesting yet:

1. A pokertracker graph with 100,000+ hands of strictly heads up nlhe cash game hands. I haven't seen one yet. I'd love to though.

2. Any reasonable/intelligent discussion of hu nlhe cash game longterm winrate. Keyword(s) = reasonable/intelligent


I won't lie. This kind of bothers me. I want to know more stuff lol.

-bfactor
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  #6  
Old 11-14-2007, 07:02 PM
Collin Moshman Collin Moshman is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

As somekid notes:

[ QUOTE ]
Also in poker, the overwhelming majority of people lose money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now you're right -- if you want a career playing HU SNGs, then a +.01% ROI would be pretty weak. But if you're playing with other motives as well, such as testing your skills, having fun, etc. (see the chart in Dr. Al's Psychology of Poker) then anything better than break-even really is good.

From a strictly career/profit perspective, I'm pretty sure we've had some decent discussion here on realistically attainable winrates at the different stakes.

-- Collin
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  #7  
Old 11-15-2007, 10:58 AM
mb6tour mb6tour is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

[ QUOTE ]
1. A pokertracker graph with 100,000+ hands of strictly heads up nlhe cash game hands. I haven't seen one yet. I'd love to though.


[/ QUOTE ]

sbrugby/aba20 prolly have one, and as far as I know you have a reasonable chance of him providing it to analisys, specially if you are CR member.
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  #8  
Old 11-15-2007, 02:52 PM
abcjnich abcjnich is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

I'm sure a ton of people have played more than 100K hands hu. That's not even a question. People aren't willing to give out that much information however.

And if you're winning, be happy. If you're not good enough to win in the long run then find another profession.
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  #9  
Old 11-15-2007, 04:58 PM
Scansion Scansion is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

The reason people ask about it is because it can be easily adjusted. Someone paid a regular salary cannot easily get a raise, while a poker player adjusting their play slightly will make more money.
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  #10  
Old 11-15-2007, 06:21 PM
ChicagoRy ChicagoRy is offline
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Default Re: FAQ:\"What’s a good win rate for X limit?

I think your comparisons are a little off base here.

If somebody just started their major and got an internship (not really any money but experience) they would be considered successful or "they should be happy."

If somebody just starts their poker career and is met with success aka positive winrate in husngs over a decent sample, they "should be happy" most likely.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's not like people are telling others in this forum "hey, you've played poker for 4 years, congrats on a 2% roi, you should be happy."

I don't think that's really the focal point of your thread, but I think those comparisons are off by too much to ignore.



Another thing, I think a lot of players respond to new posters asking about winrates at lower stakes games over small sample sizes in those "you're winning be happy" ways because your winrate shouldn't really matter that much to you if you're still in a major learning part of your "playing career."

Sure, you want to see 100k hand samples from big winners and see what is and isn't possible, but it's kind of pointless. Take my word for it, if you're good and play a lot you'll make a ton of money. Until then, worry about learning the game and improving so you have that chance, not whether it's possible to beat 10/20 HU for 11bb/100 or 15bb/100.

Also, all this stuff has been asked sooooo many times that it's very annoying to see a new post everyday with "what's a realistic hu cash winrate for 100NL." If you use the search function you would see plenty of threads with plenty of "15bb/100" type answers that you say you want and aren't getting. It's been covered.
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