Hand from $1500 WSOP PL

[djk123]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.001 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.358% 34.08% 01.27% 8436 315.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 64.642% 63.37% 01.27% 15684 315.00 { 66-22 }


(.2*5500 + .8 * .35358 * 11300) - (.8*.64642*7800)=+262.702

So yea if he folds at least 20% of time it is +ev.


It's break even when (x*5500 + (1-x) * .35358 * 11300) - ((1-x)*.64642*7800)=0 x=0.159872

So if he's folding about 16% of the time, it's breakeven. I dunno I just don't see him folding this often, but I have never played live so maybe you are right.

[curtains]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.001 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.358% 34.08% 01.27% 8436 315.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 64.642% 63.37% 01.27% 15684 315.00 { 66-22 }


(.2*5500 + .8 * .35358 * 11300) - (.8*.64642*7800)=+262.702

So yea if he folds at least 20% of time it is +ev.


It's break even when (x*5500 + (1-x) * .35358 * 11300) - ((1-x)*.64642*7800)=0 x=0.159872

So if he's folding about 16% of the time, it's breakeven. I dunno I just don't see him folding this often, but I have never played live so maybe you are right.

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Honestly at the time I thought he'd fold a decent amount of the time. Probably definitely over 25%. But ok I get overoptimistic sometimes.

[djk123]

I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

[THEOSU]

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they dont fold on the flop, but they might on the turn if you call (especially if an ace hits), but I probably fold anyway

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Btw what range do you put him on after his flop bet?

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well, he puts you on AK, so he can probably beat that, just not by very much

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this is why i like a call here.

you have six pure outs to the best hand, eight bluff outs, maybe even 4 more bluff outs (if he hems and haws and folds when jack falls), and 9 or 10 hearts you wouldn't mind getting it in with (not sure which card was the heart, whether it was one of the two sevens or the five. obv if the 7h falls, you're not too happy about the flush draw). you're peeling 2k from a 6k pot for 14+ cards, that's a great price.

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Yeah I think its an option, just a difficult one to evaluate. Also I could get two free cards if he gets scared on the turn and does something like check when a 9 or 8 comes. btw please note that if a 7 comes I have the best hand, and the guy probably isn't going to try to bluff me off of it, unless hes a really optimistic guy.

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yeah, i was going by memory after quoting the level headed pirate and thought the flop was 775. so obv if the 5h falls, you're not happy, although you do pick up an additional out!

[curtains]

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I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

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I'm talking about preflop, are you? You know slightly more likely to fold 22+33, but also slightly more likely to raise 66.

[djk123]

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I could be way off and you be right, I don't know. I'm just trying to think what other hands he would lead like this besides pairs. Also, if he's calling 44, I think he's calling 22-33 since they're basically the same in this spot.

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Oh I was talking about postflop.
I'm talking about preflop, are you? You know slightly more likely to fold 22+33, but also slightly more likely to raise 66.

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Oh yea. I was talking about postflop.