($320) 10 BB stack, SB Completes, Check or Raise Marginal Hand?

[Collin Moshman]

UTG and button are solid regulars. MP is loose-passive. SB appears average-ish -- 22/12/1.5 after around 70 hands. Hero has a TAG image. Leading up to this hand, there has been no blind-on-blind play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t1520)
MP (t3120)
Button (t4205)
SB (t2640)
Hero (t2015)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, 4.
3 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero...

I would say the above situation is a fairly common one in mid-blind play, and there are several questions you should ask yourself before deciding whether to push or just take the free flop.

1. How well does your hand play post-flop? Since you have position, if you have a hand that plays well post-flop, you should often just check and take a free flop with position and your hypothesized decent hand (e.g., 8 9s, T Jo). In this case, your weak king-high, while a fine hand against the random distribution, does not play well post-flop. So this factor argues for pushing pre-flop.

2. Is your opponent likely to be trapping? If he is a good player and either of you have 10 BB or less, then you should strongly consider the possibility that Villain wants your action. Also, if you have already pushed on the same player earlier, and he smooth-completes again, be weary. In this case, neither factor applies, so again this argues for an immediate push.

3. What is your risk/reward ratio? Here Hero is risking 1800 chips to win 400, giving him between 1:4 and 1:5 on his steal investment. When coming over top of a normal steal raise, you would usually want better. But there is substantial fold equity here, and so this factor is roughly neutral.

4. [Less Important] Do I need/want to gamble now? Answers here are No and No. With a stack of 9 or so BB after the blinds pass, Hero does not need to force a move. Furthermore, there are likely to be many excellent stealing opportunities with a solid regular one to Hero's left. So this factor argues against the push.

Since I place lower weight on Question #4, and all the other factors are positive or neutral, Hero should indeed push here.

Incidentally, while software cannot account for all these factors, let's see if using some reasonable assumptions an ICM-based program agrees. For non open-pushing situations, I prefer SNG Wizard. Here I assigned Villain a 40% complete range and 8% re-call range, and Wizard's output was a .42% equity edge for Hero to shove.

Always nice when software agrees with one's reasoning process [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Best Regards,
Collin

[ryanghall]

Because of your read on SB, I would push this a lot of the time. If it was one of the solid players, I'd be less inclined to, as I find it's far more often a trap in that case. As well, if it's a loose player, I'd also be less inclined to as I can normally outplay them postflop easily and they're more likely to call with marginal holdings like say KT (or worse).

Ryan

[Little John]

An unknown 22/12/1.5 seems like a perfect opponent to push against. I just take AA and KK out of the equation and go from there. A 22/2 guy would be a bit scarier because he is more likely to limp AJ and then call your push. A 22/12 player would usually push Ax, KT, or PP. So since he did not push it is hard to imagine he would call. If he has a monster so be it. Plus you have outs vs QQ and JJ. Can't really see him trapping with anything less than JJ.

[curtains]

Id usually go allin in case you described.

[DDBeast]

He'd have to be on a pretty tight limping range and loose calling (the push) range for a check to be good. Pushh

[MadScientist]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG and button are solid regulars. MP is loose-passive. SB appears average-ish -- 22/12/1.5 after around 70 hands. Hero has a TAG image.


Leading up to this hand, there has been no blind-on-blind play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given your read and the ICM calc, push!
Something like T8, see a flop.

[Slim Pickens]

I think this advice is generally good. You should, however, consider your audience when giving advice like this.

[ QUOTE ]
you should often just check and take a free flop with position and your hypothesized decent hand (e.g., 8 9s, T Jo)

[/ QUOTE ]

To paraphrase DDBeast, a hand only plays well post-flop if you play it well. Advanced-beginner players are going to have a hard time understanding what to do when they hold 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], the flop comes out J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and their weak-tight opponent min-bets out 1/2 the pot. Pushing preflop is always the far safer play from an implied-odds standpoint.

Also, I don't see why #4 is a point at all. Isn't "gambling" just the less exact way most people quantify 1-3? If your point is "What is my equity likely to look like on future hands? Is taking an almost-neutral push here going to prevent me from making a more +$EV play later?" then you should state that explicitly.

[Indiana]

more of these posts collin!

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
He'd have to be on a pretty tight limping range and loose calling (the push) range for a check to be good. Pushh

[/ QUOTE ]

yeh, i didnt read the op because it looks like an instashove to me... i mean unless you have a really [censored] up history...