AA fold to a raise on flop?

[LOLDONKBETZ]

[ QUOTE ]
no reads on villain, I was about to fold, I assumed he was on a set and giving me 2outs to improve, the best case would be a combo draw(flush/straight), but wouldnt give me odds to call either. I dont think, someone reraises top pair on the flop in a raised pot with 2callers or am I wrong? So to be honest, having aces looks nice, but a everything is leading towards a fold for me..

[/ QUOTE ]

you have more than two outs, you have backdoor straight that splits pot and backdoor flush that wins you the pot. If you can put his range soley on a set with this board then yes it is a fold, but there are too many holdings he could have. My range would include 88+, TPTK, pair+flush draw, flush draw+straight draw, naked flush draw, set, and two pair - against this range you have good equity and need to push now with some fold equity.

[THoM.]

I hear a lot of people say "if he has a set, thats just unlucky, so be it. A lot of times you can recognise a set, especially on this limits by type of minraises on some boards.

[jallabar]

[ QUOTE ]
I hear a lot of people say "if he has a set, thats just unlucky, so be it. A lot of times you can recognise a set, especially on this limits by type of minraises on some boards.

[/ QUOTE ]


I am totally with you and actually confused everyone is inclined to push their stacks off here

[monkeymaps]

yeah alot of people min raise this board with A7 @ 10 NL here.

I need some sort of read here to just assume he has a set.
IME @ 10NL getting it in on the flop with an overpair is +EV yeah sometimes this is a set or st8 but on the whole youll make money.

I think its important to note what hands people show when they minraise sometimes its a huge hand other times its just that persons standard raise size.

to those saying he has a set here all the time are being results oreintated. you must see how exploitable just folding and overpair everytime you get min raised is.

[LOLDONKBETZ]

This is the range I gave villian, and equity in the hand. I excluded a lot of Ax hands because hero holds Ace of diamonds and it's doubtful villian has something like AxQd, etc.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

95,040 games 0.005 secs 19,008,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.703% 72.52% 01.18% 68927 1120.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 26.297% 25.12% 01.18% 23873 1120.00 { KK-44, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A7o }

[restless]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hear a lot of people say "if he has a set, thats just unlucky, so be it. A lot of times you can recognise a set, especially on this limits by type of minraises on some boards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am totally with you and actually confused everyone is inclined to push their stacks off here

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe its an NL10 thing... i'm not familiar with how NL10 plays, but i would rarely fold to a minraise on a board like this on NL25/NL50. this board is sooo drawy and you also have to consider that BB may have an overpair on the flop (99-JJ/QQ). I think BB's range preflop is wide thanks to the call from SB, and while he may have hit a set there's plenty of other hands too.

would you like to give me an idea of what range you're putting him on?

fwiw, i think its like 44-QQ,76,65,64,87,98dd,85,A7,K7,XYdd and also the moran factor of 5% air.
thats a lot of combos.

[LOLDONKBETZ]

I even added 85s and 53s, we still have 70% equity against this range and that is why I'm going to the felt with it

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

102,960 games 0.005 secs 20,592,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 68.592% 67.45% 01.14% 69448 1174.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 31.408% 30.27% 01.14% 31164 1174.00 { KK-44, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 85s, 76s, 65s, 53s+, A7o }


---

95,040 games 0.005 secs 19,008,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.703% 72.52% 01.18% 68927 1120.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 26.297% 25.12% 01.18% 23873 1120.00 { KK-44, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A7o }

[restless]

Sorry but i think your stove is slightly misleading... you shouldn't use any 2 suited (like KTs etc) you should only use suited in diamonds (ie KdTd etc).

still, pretty nice equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

101,970 games 0.015 secs 6,798,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 6d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.628% 60.66% 00.97% 61856 986.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 38.372% 37.41% 00.97% 38142 986.00 { QQ-44, A7s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 98s, 85s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A7o, 98o, 76o, 65o }

[LOLDONKBETZ]

Err you're right I didn't check just diamonds, good catch.