NLTRN variance

ratone · #1 09-21-2007, 09:44 PM

I am a NL100~200 6max regular, and also played some NL100 HU, but HUcash is such a sick variance and sometimes tilts me easily, so, yesterday i decided try some HUSNGs.
I played 50 $55+2.5 HUSNGs and won 55%. But today I played like 21 and won only 5!!! I was obviously running bad, but is that a standard variance or I am probably doing something VERY wrong? Also i should probably drop to 33+1.5 to learn how to play it properly before playing the 55's right?

thx

chrismystero · #2 09-22-2007, 02:04 AM

your sample size of two days and like 30 games or wutever u played is way way too small. if you feel uncomfortable at the 55s there is no question u should drop to the 33s.

Also, if your really thinking you need to learn how to "play properly" I suggest posting a lot of hands, reading a lot on the forums, and dedicate some learning time away from the tables. That, and, if you're actually still feeling like you have lots to learn, maybe u should do something even lower than the 33s.

gl regardless.

chrismystero

ratone · #3 09-22-2007, 08:52 AM

I know my sample size is way way too small. I just wanted to know if, for a decent player, this loosing streak is standard or something rare.

My bankroll is at about 6k, so i dont think there is no need to play lower than 33s, right?

ty [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

hra146 · #4 09-22-2007, 09:00 AM

well, all I can say is that "the odds are" that you arent much of a winner at the 55s. 15 BI loss on the second day COULD be variance but yeah... the odds are.

other than that : sticky + search function

Revolvermann · #5 09-22-2007, 09:01 AM

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post10979789

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post10969932

both from the sticky thread!!

ChicagoRy · #6 09-22-2007, 08:24 PM

Nobody has mentioned tilt. It's just as likely IMO that he is an average player and possibly small winner that tilted off a lot of buyins because he wasn't winning right away in a new game rather than a bad player that just can't win.

I'm really surprised nobody mentioned tilt bc OP mentioned it in the second line of his post.

Don't tilt, play some 33s and don't bluff 95% of your opponents. Value bet your good hands, learn to give up if you semi-bluff decent draws against weak-tight players and think through your decisions. Don't get discouraged if you get it in ahead and lose, it'll happen a lot.

You'll be a winner in the 33s if you follow that advice, guaranteed.

xSCWx · #7 09-22-2007, 08:40 PM

^^ good advice.

I find that most of the people I've tried to help out with NLTRN take a while to realize they need to stop and think about their hands instead of just smashing bet/raise/call.

Probably the best advice I can give you is to slow down and think about what is going on.

ratone · #8 09-23-2007, 09:37 PM

yesterday i played a small session of 10 33s. And guess what? I lost 9 of them, lol. Here is some key hands from the sngs. Please feel free to give me some advices. thanx

SNG1 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
hero calls t30 (pot was t90), BB checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t120, 2 players)
BB checks, hero checks.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t120, 2 players)
BB bets t120, hero raises to t360, BB calls t240 (pot was t600).

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t840, 2 players)
BB checks, hero is all-in t905, BB calls t905 (pot was t1745).

Results:
Final pot: t2650

SNG2 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
hero calls t20 (pot was t60), BB raises to t120, hero calls t80 (pot was t120).

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t240, 2 players)
BB bets t240, hero raises all-in t2015, BB calls all-in t505.
Uncalled bets: t1270 returned to hero.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1730, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t1730)

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1730, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t1730)

Results:
Final pot: t1730

SNG2 H2:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t25/t50
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB calls t25 (pot was t75), hero checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t100, 2 players)
hero checks, SB checks.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t100, 2 players)
hero checks, SB checks.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t100, 2 players)
hero checks, SB bets t100, hero raises all-in t2170, SB calls all-in t630.
Uncalled bets: t1440 returned to hero.

Results:
Final pot: t1560

SNG2 H3:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
hero calls t30 (pot was t90), BB raises to t120, hero calls t60 (pot was t120).

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t240, 2 players)
BB bets t240, hero raises all-in t1230, BB calls t990 (pot was t1710).

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t2700, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2700)

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t2700, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2700)

Results:
Final pot: t2700

SNG3 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
hero raises to t90, BB calls t60 (pot was t105).

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t180, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets t120, BB calls t120 (pot was t300).

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t420, 2 players)
BB bets t420, hero calls t420 (pot was t840).

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1260, 2 players)
BB is all-in t870, hero calls all-in t870.

Results:
Final pot: t3000

SNG4 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB calls t15 (pot was t45), hero checks.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t60, 2 players)
hero bets t50, SB calls t50 (pot was t110).

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t160, 2 players)
hero bets t130, SB calls t130 (pot was t290).

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t420, 2 players)
hero bets t280, SB raises all-in t1200, hero calls t920 (pot was t1900).

Results:
Final pot: t2820

SNG5 H1: how bad is that?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t40/t80
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB calls t40 (pot was t120), hero raises to t220, SB calls t140 (pot was t220).

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t440, 2 players)
hero bets t310, SB calls t310 (pot was t750).

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1060, 2 players)
hero is all-in t1100, SB calls all-in t840.
Uncalled bets: t260 returned to hero.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t2740, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t2740)

Results:
Final pot: t2740

SNG6 H1: I didnt believed he had was betting so big with an ace. This is also pretty bad, right?
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB raises to t90, hero calls t60 (pot was t105).

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t180, 2 players)
hero checks, SB bets t120, hero calls t120 (pot was t300).

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t420, 2 players)
hero checks, SB bets t420, hero raises all-in t1275, SB calls t855 (pot was t2115).

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t2970, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2970)

Results:
Final pot: t2970

SNG7 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB calls t20 (pot was t60), hero checks.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t80, 2 players)
hero bets t60, SB raises to t260, hero raises to t860, SB raises all-in t1680, hero calls all-in t440.
Uncalled bets: t380 returned to SB.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t2680, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t2680)

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t2680, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t2680)

Results:
Final pot: t2680

SNG8 H1: the guy was passive with good hands (he once check/called flop with A6 on boad A6x) and had check/raised me twice
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t25/t50
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
hero raises to t100, BB calls t50 (pot was t125).

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t200, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets t120, BB raises all-in t2020, hero calls all-in t660.
Uncalled bets: t1240 returned to BB.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1760, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t1760)

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1760, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t1760)

Results:
Final pot: t1760

SNG9 H1: first hand in the match
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB calls t15 (pot was t45), hero raises to t120, SB calls t90 (pot was t120).

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t240, 2 players)
hero bets t140, SB calls t140 (pot was t380).

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t520, 2 players)
hero bets t320, SB calls t320 (pot was t840).

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t1160, 2 players)
hero checks, SB bets t430, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t430 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: t1160

SNG9 H2:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB raises to t120, hero raises all-in t710, SB calls t590 (pot was t810).

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t1420, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t1420)

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t1420, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t1420)

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t1420, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t1420)

Results:
Final pot: t1420

SNG10 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t25/t50
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
hero calls t25 (pot was t75), BB checks.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t100, 2 players)
BB bets t100, hero calls t100 (pot was t200).

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t300, 2 players)
BB checks, hero bets t150, BB calls t150 (pot was t450).

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t600, 2 players)
BB is all-in t535, hero calls t535 (pot was t1135).

Results:
Final pot: t1670

SNG10 H2:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB calls t30 (pot was t90), hero raises to t180, SB calls t120 (pot was t180).

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t360, 2 players)
hero checks, SB checks.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t360, 2 players)
hero bets t360, SB raises to t1440, hero folds.
Uncalled bets: t1080 returned to SB.

Results:
Final pot: t1080

F. McSimmons · #9 09-23-2007, 10:30 PM

most of those are pretty gross. I will let others elaborate but I don't see you being a winner IMO.

xSCWx · #10 09-24-2007, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yesterday i played a small session of 10 33s. And guess what? I lost 9 of them, lol. Here is some key hands from the sngs. Please feel free to give me some advices. thanx

SNG1 H1:
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
hero calls t30 (pot was t90), BB checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t120, 2 players)
BB checks, hero checks.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t120, 2 players)
BB bets t120, hero raises to t360, BB calls t240 (pot was t600).

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t840, 2 players)
BB checks, hero is all-in t905, BB calls t905 (pot was t1745).

Results:
Final pot: t2650

[/ QUOTE ]

There are way too many hands in this for me to reply to, but most of them pertain to hands like this. After checking the flop and betting the turn, the villain almost always shows up here with the OESD. The flush draw isn't out of the question but it still exists. This narrows their hand down to the 7, the 3, and 2 spades. If you call and hit you usually take the pot or split it. If you call and miss you will probably have a showdown by high card if they didn't pair. The turn reraise doesn't really serve any purpose in NLTRN except that it adds variance.

As far as the river all in goes, the possible hands you are against either hit a flush (call), hit a straight (call), or missed with the same draw as you in which case you have like a 33% chance of taking it down if you check through. I wouldn't recommend making this reraise on the turn, but if you do a 300 river bet will do just as much as an all in. 600 chips is still very possible to come back from.