Bluff catcher

[KCrow]

How's the hand played, I wasn't sure whether to fire on the turn. I opted to check the turn with the intention to call a river bet, this was somewhat more than I expected. Is it profitable to call here?

Villain is 18/12/2.7

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $29.50
BB: $109.45
UTG: $50.25
MP: $50
Hero (CO): $49.25
BTN: $149.50

Pre-Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, SB folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($6.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, BTN folds, BB calls $4

Turn: ($14.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($14.25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $14</font>, Hero???

I've attempted a pokerstove range, I'm not the best at this, any comments?

Board: Ac Td Qd 8c 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.692% 47.69% 00.00% 31 0.00 { Ad2d }
Hand 1: 52.308% 52.31% 00.00% 34 0.00 { TT, AQs-A9s, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, 8d7d, 7d6d, 6d5d, 5d4d, AQo-ATo, KQo, KTo, QTo }

[iheartponeez]

Ehhh, this could definitely be someone who tried to c/r you with a good hand on the turn and is now trying to make up for it.

[Genz]

I take the free card a lot here since I don't really want to get raised and I don't see a lot of hands that check/called the flop check/fold on the river. A lone K or J maybe. And the river is pretty certainly a value bet by villain. A busted K hi flush draw maybe. But I usually fold here.

[KCrow]

[ QUOTE ]
And the river is pretty certainly a value bet by villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it strike you as a little large esp as I've checked the turn and not showed too much strenght. And does a big hand not raise the flop to get value from draws and protect the hand from them.......I know I would. As you rightly say it could also be a big hand which wanted to CR the turn.

[Genz]

Well, I made a lot of stupid calls when I thought: that bet is too big to be a value bet. It's a bluff. As a default, you should believe that a big bet means strength, unless you have some evidence to the contrary. Especially because villain is a tight player. I think the idea that villain missed a c/r on the turn is a very good idea. You only beat a pure bluff. A tight player overcalled in the BB preflop. He most certainly has a speculative hand. KJs, J9s, QTs, A4s-A9s, 88, 33 just seem right. You only beat Kd9d and stuff like that here. I'd stay out of trouble. You have invested only a small amount and you are losing only a small pot. No need to triple your losses because of curiosity.

So you called. Results?

[Genz]

And btw: don't think that your opponents think the way that you do. They usually will slowplay themselves to death.

[Bluegrassplayer]

I think this is a fold, but it's strange. I think a good player fires again on the turn with a hand then checks the river to let you bluff. It's also possible that he was slowplaying something like j/9 here because your bet on the flop made him believe that you had a made hand. Interesting hand I'm interested in the results also.

[well named]

As played I would fold, I don't think his betting range here includes much that you are ahead of.

I am tempted to semi-bluff the turn, since you may fold out enough Ax hands that have you currently outkicked. On the other hand, if you bet 10-12 you will almost be forced to call a shove drawing to a 4:1 shot at best. I think the EV difference between semi-bluffing and checking behind the turn will probably be pretty close. If you have some history with the villain or expect to play many more hands against him the semi-bluff line may be good for image reasons as well.

[KCrow]

I folded and then started to second guess myself, thinking folding was a bad move. I feel somewhat happier about the decision now. The pokerstove results didn't make a call look too good either.