50NL - River bluff vs random

[Hail Eris]

Villain is some 30/0/1.5 fish who's been calling and folding to cbets a lot. His AF is highest on the river. I'm running at like 20/17/4 and have shown down good hands. I figure he has busted spades a lot but I can't possibly call, so I do this instead. Any merit to it?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($136.30)
Hero ($91.70)
SB ($73.25)
BB ($56.30)
UTG ($50.10)
MP ($111.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, BB calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($11.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>,

[creamfillin]

If he's folding to cbets alot then he must of called on the flop with a hand. he can also easily have a nine here. His AF is probably highest on the river because if he gets that far into the hand he generally has a decent hand by the river.

[Profish2285]

I dont see why we cant call here if we are that confident he has a missed flush draw. We have a pair which is obviously better than a bluff but Im not sure why this cant also be a 9 very often. This seems really thin.

[Nick Royale]

I'm folding.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
River bluff vs random

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

In this particular hand, you will be called by so many hands because the face cards came on the turn and river. So if he had a draw, he is very likely to have a pair now. Any 9 has a straight. People don't really realize how you run and what you show down. Just give it up.

[cashstrapped]

this is a horrible spot imo. the only hand he folds are spades anything else calls. also if you say he folds to c-bets then he must have something

[Check_The_Nuts]

lol your reads make this so bad

[choccypie]

If he has a 9, he's not going to fold, and neither is he going to belive you have a 9.

Just call his river bet if you think it's a bluff, better hands are always going to call your raise.

[Hail Eris]

Alright, I guess this basically felt like spew at the time, too, but I don't think he has a 9 hardly ever here with this bet sizing.

Anyway, since my hand is too weak to call a lead on most rivers, is there any merit to "semivaluebluffing" the turn here? I mean I can't just assume he has a strong hand when he calls the flop, since so many draws are possible.

So I bet the turn and maybe he calls with a spade/straight draw, maybe he folds one pair better than 6s, maybe he calls with a better hand and I suck out, and it keeps him from bluffing me off my bottom pair on the river. Thoughts on that?