weak full house 5/10

JKratzer · #1 09-20-2006, 12:03 AM

villian is good aggro 22/19/5. views me as tag. we haven't tangled that much, i've floated him a couple times on the flop and he check folded to my turn bet. i'd reraise a lot of the time pf here, i didn't this time. looking back it might have made it easier to play, but whatver, i'm here now.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($0)
MP ($1557.59)
Hero ($1607)
Button ($1720.44)
SB ($871.80)
BB ($1053)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
MP raises to $38, Hero calls $38, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $33, 1 fold.

Flop: ($124) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets $100, Hero calls $100, SB folds.

Turn: ($324) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP bets $240, Hero ??

ninjia3x · #2 09-20-2006, 12:49 AM

fold

BobboFitos · #3 09-20-2006, 01:46 AM

if you were to continue, i really like moving all in here

soah · #4 09-20-2006, 01:57 AM

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if you were to continue, i really like moving all in here

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I usually like your posts a lot, but this one I don't get. Are you trying to get him off a better hand by repping quads?

BobboFitos · #5 09-20-2006, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you were to continue, i really like moving all in here

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually like your posts a lot, but this one I don't get. Are you trying to get him off a better hand by repping quads?

[/ QUOTE ]

its like this... if you just call, he will VB a better hand on the river, anyway. So we stand to lose more money - and we're not exactly drawing v live. so if we're behind (or to a 9, somehow) we're very far behind, and his hand is strong (relative to the board) even the most passive player will find a reason to value bet. Given this, and the fact we WILL want to see a showdown, we'll call. (I hate plans, even though others love them, of calling 2 streets and folding the last one, only thinking "they wont have the stones of 3barrelling", because really you're hoping 1. they stop firing 2. they dont improve - the parlay typically isnt good)

if villain was described as a maniac or someone who is bluffing ALOT, and most likely WILL continue a bluff, the plan is to call so that he bets alot on the river, as that maximizes earnings when ahead (and still minimizes when behind) but this isnt really the case.

what we know is his opening could be a semi strong full house himself, possibly (and hopefully not) the above description of a bigger full boat, or as OP mentioned, enough 2nd barrels full of hands like KJ or A4 or whatever (and I like 2nd barrels alot here, as what does OP feel comfortable calling down with?)*

*About the 2nd barrel, if villain is eliciting hero to consider folding a hand as powerful as TT (zeebo theorem be damned) and knows quads is unlikely, he really should be betting here every time. (everytime he wants a fold, if I had something like AA maybe Id check to let hero float, if that was the plan, then value bet river hoping hero paired and wants to make a big call, but I digress)

So to me it comes down to either calling down, folding, or moving all in. Why not a smaller raise then all in? Firstoff, stack sizes are kinda weird. Secondly, its actually a stronger move then an allin here, because you're trying to piece in your stack rather then "blow villain off whatever he has." (This may not make sense) But I think a worse hand just folds to the smaller raise, but may try to make a big call of an all in.

I think calling down wins the least -> but more importantly, a ton of hands have 7ish outs (like KJ, AQ - they have overs and the 9) which is significant amount of equity if you just call.

I thin kthis is all garbled, but basically I move all in because a. his hand range is alot of junk that unfortunately has equity in a pot I dont want him to have any and b. its certainly possible to be called by a worse hand.

Its not like our hand is A5 here...

soah · #6 09-20-2006, 02:30 AM

OK, but you realize that moving in is $1100 more, right? And if we get called we are losing most of those times. If you know the guy will call with any boat then disregard... I am going off the assumption that 88 is finding a fold here pretty often. Maybe I am wrong. But even if he calls with any pp better than fives, his range still beats us. I do not see why calling a re-evaluating on the river is not better for us. If we expect him to fire three barrels then we have a profitable call, and if we don't think he will, then we can fold. That seems a lot better than making a huge raise that gets called by hands that crush us but not by many hands we beat.

Megenoita · #7 09-20-2006, 02:37 AM

You can either fold now or call one more time, calling on the basis that he might fire once more to get you off a smaller pair (with AK type overs, or lower pair). I think you need a specific read to call the river if he fires yet again.

Raising the turn is terrible. You will fold all pairs you beat (who will probably not fire the river), and only JJ+ will call, against which you're drawing nearly dead. No better hand will fold IMO. If you really feel that you are ahead enough to bluff all in, then why not call and induce a river bluff, and call that? At least then the worse hands give you more money.

BobboFitos · #8 09-20-2006, 02:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
OK, but you realize that moving in is $1100 more, right? And if we get called we are losing most of those times. If you know the guy will call with any boat then disregard... I am going off the assumption that 88 is finding a fold here pretty often. Maybe I am wrong. But even if he calls with any pp better than fives, his range still beats us. I do not see why calling a re-evaluating on the river is not better for us. If we expect him to fire three barrels then we have a profitable call, and if we don't think he will, then we can fold. That seems a lot better than making a huge raise that gets called by hands that crush us but not by many hands we beat.

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the problem - its not easy to say, "this guy will 3barrell too often," or "this guy wont 3barrell enough". Really, you just dont know. if you know the guy well (enough history to "know" one or the other) then clearly there is a "clear" path.

also, this is a weird kind of bet, to me its a value bet, but I agree, when called you're typically in trouble (however, if ahead, they are drawing dead)

blitz · #9 09-20-2006, 03:06 AM

with this history and preflop action villain probably puts you on a smaller pocketpair or a float. IMO folding here would be terrible, id call and snap of a 3rd barrel which he is gonna fire here pretty often. i think youre good here way too often to fold

JKratzer · #10 09-20-2006, 04:13 AM

well because we started 155bb's deep, i thought this was a tough spot on the turn. i think i get what you're saying bobbo but i don't like a push at all for the reasons soah and meg said. i would assume this guy folds pp's 88 and down. he won't fold aa/kk/qq, maybe jj but i wouldn't be real confident of that. a fold has some merit as this is the first time he's fired into the turn on me, but at the same time he might be using the "credit" he's established to do exactly that - fire a second barrel. i wasn't sure what to do so i called. here's the action:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($0)
MP ($1557.59)
Hero ($1607)
Button ($1720.44)
SB ($871.80)
BB ($1053)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
MP raises to $38, Hero calls $38, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $33, 1 fold.

Flop: ($124) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP bets $100, Hero calls $100, SB folds.

Turn: ($324) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP bets $240, Hero calls $240.

River: ($804) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP calls $1179.59 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1983.59