99 Turn Spot vs. LAG 10/20

[MrHoobris]

10/20 6 Handed.

Button: 47/30/1.6 LAG over 104
SB (villain): 60/25/0.88 LAG over 40 hands who has already tried an outright bluff check/raise on the turn vs me once in a blind steal situation. Not the type to 3bet random hands preflop so far, but definitely capable of erratic play.

Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Preflop: Button Opens, SB 3bets, Hero Cold Caps, both Call.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 12SB)
SB Checks, Hero Bets, Button Folds, SB Calls

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (HU, 7BB)
SB Checks, Hero?

Given the size of the pot and the villain what's my best line?
How does my picked up 4-flush affect my decision? (Would you play black nines differently?)

Finally, despite the LAG villain, he will not semi-bluff/bluff check/raise enough for me to be a favourite on new money going in the pot calling down.

[rubbrband]

I think I would bet and call down(consider folding river depending on what lands). Black nines however fold to a raise.

[Zobags]

I would check behind on this turn.

[Apanage]

I'm not playing 10/20. Can you explain for me why capping with 99 preflop against two LAGs is a better line Than CR or RR a good (one broadway card) flop?

[RunDownHouse]

If I think he's apt to try a bluff on me, then I bet and don't feel bad about calling down most rivers.

[Zele]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not playing 10/20. Can you explain for me why capping with 99 preflop against two LAGs is a better line Than CR or RR a good (one broadway card) flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have great equity vs. their ranges plus you sometimes get the bonus of knocking out the button.

[latefordinner]

Actually having the crappy flush draw here makes me less inclined to bet since we have to call a raise (bet/fold this turn with black 9s). I usually check behind and then call any river that's not an A, K or T. I don't think we are getting much value with a turn bet here or folding anything we care about.

[HitKing4192]

I agree with latefordinner. This is a perfect check-behind, call river-bet situation. This is a hand you want to get to showdown with, and any hand you beat (lower PP, Ax, KJ/KT etc) may fire out a river bet after you check.

In general, I don't like betting if I'm not going to 3-bet or fold (or at the very least call with a better than average draw, which I'd probably be 3-betting anyway). Here, I have none of those things.

By betting, I end up wasting 3 bets total (turn+river) when I'm behind (if he has a Q,J, flush or likely naked A you're getting popped here) with not many ways to improve (and if you do hit flush you don't know if it improved you to a loser so you probably can't raise a bet). By checking, I end up making one bet when I'm ahead (if he donk/bluffs a river) and losing one bet when I'm behind. If he checks though a blank river, so be it...win a small pot.

I like the meta-game implications too (if applicable). I like LAGs to know that I'm not stupid-aggressive with every hand so that the next time I do come 3-betting with my straight draw or bottom pair+bdoor flush draw they think (boy, he didn't bet 99 before, he must really have a hand here)

[wackjob]

slowing down here is going to hurt more than facing a tough decision if you are raised. don't give the free card on a draw happy board against these monkeys.

[Apanage]

SB is a loose/aggressive passive (only 0.88 postflop). 40 hands isn't much but if we assume that he has this stats over a bigger sample I bet he would maximum 3-bet top 10% (and probably only top 5%) of his hands from SB ,so when we have subtracted the fact that we are sandwiched the whole pot from our equity I don't think it is a great move to 3-bet preflop but maybe I'm just weak.
My experience from LAP:s is that they're treating reraises preflop like postflop play, which means that when someone else shows aggression they're getting soft if they don't have a real good hand.
We need a real good flop with this hand. If we get one we can get the two extra bets that we lost preflop by raising/betting the flop and if the flop comes real bad we can muck the hand or maybe call if we think we still can win a 2-broadway flop.