Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop

soda · #1 10-19-2007, 02:53 AM

My question is: Would calling this bet be +EV, -EV? Villain is 22/18/8 150 hands, nothing extreme... some three betting, but never all in before. Without an extreme read, I'm calling KK here 100% of the time, but what about QQ? I'm guessing it's a much worse hand... but bad enough to fold here? Tell me what you think.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($146.55)
MP ($100)
Button ($85.15)
Hero ($238.90)
BB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, UTG raises to $146.55, Hero calls $132.55.

Flop: ($294.10) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: ($294.10) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($294.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $294.10

FishSticks · #2 10-19-2007, 05:38 AM

Yah you're 150bb deep and you don't have a ton invested, I'd just let this go. Maybe he has AK, rarely a bluff - but it's not worth the gamble. If you have been 3betting him like crazy and sense a light 4bet coming, then I suppose you could justify a call here.

shandyboy · #3 10-19-2007, 05:59 AM

yeah, 150bb's deep was the first thing i saw.
i only call here if ive been 3betting alot, and my read on villain is that he is aware of this and capable of 4betting light.
(KK and its in like a shot)

Jamougha · #4 10-19-2007, 06:02 AM

What does he think of you. there's no way to answer accurately here without knowing that.

ronitonline · #5 10-19-2007, 06:25 AM

I know this is a fold in reality, but kids are so bad at NL100 that I find myself making calls here all the time, and whats so gay is everytime they push with A9 I have AJs, when I have QQ they have AA.

RobertJohn · #6 10-19-2007, 07:07 AM

Hey guys I'm in procrastination mode so I ran some numbers.

Getting 1.24-to-1 on your money, you need > 44.6% to call.

Some possibilities:

A) If he does this with JJ+ and AK+ your equity = 47.5%, making this a slightly +EV call.

B) If he does this with JJ+ 100% of the time and AK (suited or offsuit) a third of the time, your equity ~ 43.8% in this spot, and so you should fold.

C) If he just spews such that his range = 99+ and AK+ then you MUST call b/c your equity = 55.7%. If you throw in AQs sometimes, the call becomes easier.

D) If he always does this with AA-KK, with QQ-JJ he does it half the time, and with AK he only does this a third of the time, your equity = 38% and thus you should fold.

So, in general, if he a normal solid player getting it in here is probably pretty bad, but if you’ve seen him spew off stacks in weird spots like this with TT or AQs, then you can call.

If you’re not sure, it might be best to just fold and wait for a better spot. IOW, it depends on what hands you think he is doing this with.

TheLoon · #7 10-19-2007, 07:08 AM

I always fold here without a very very good read. You are a coin flipper at best IMHO.

TheLoon

carrotsnake · #8 10-19-2007, 07:45 AM

I no longer ever fold QQ preflop

Burcak · #9 10-19-2007, 07:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I no longer ever fold QQ preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

up to how many bbs/pot odd?

brianpower · #10 10-19-2007, 08:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you have been 3betting him like crazy and sense a light 4bet coming, then I suppose you could justify a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, let recent history guide you.