Read this before starting a "Who Do I pick in Survivor" Thread - Page 12

kyro · #**111** 09-20-2007, 03:07 PM

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Why wouldn't you look at the ML instead of the spread? I mean if we're going to deride his post... Why not atleast use the appropriate expert index?

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I was going to ask if there was any evidence to show that a 7-point home favorite won more often than a 7.5-point underdog favorite. I'm curious if there's any weight to the idea that a 7.5 point underdog at home will either get blown out or win a close one.

kyro · #**112** 09-20-2007, 03:19 PM

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If you just take the highest favorite, you might have lost in week 1 (The two highest favorites were tied at -6.5 and one lost outright)

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Well, the books are typically smarter than you. But I still think the Jax/Tenn line was too high.

34TheTruth34 · #**113** 09-20-2007, 03:28 PM

Am I the only one on Baltimore this week? They seemed like the best pick to me. Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE.

stormstarter28 · #**114** 09-20-2007, 05:10 PM

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Am I the only one on Baltimore this week? They seemed like the best pick to me. Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE.

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I'm taking Baltimore. My plan was to save New England for when they hosted Cleveland. (That's not looking as good as it did before last Sunday, but I'm sticking with it)

Levarkin · #**115** 09-20-2007, 05:39 PM

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I was going to ask if there was any evidence to show that a 7-point home favorite won more often than a 7.5-point underdog favorite. I'm curious if there's any weight to the idea that a 7.5 point underdog at home will either get blown out or win a close one.

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My database only goes back to 2002, so take it for what it's worth, but I actually found that a 7-point home favourite did win more often than a 7.5-point road favourite. But the sample size is too small for the 7.5 road faves; one more win and they pull even. I matched all the equal home and road spreads (as I presume FO did) and found no bias for the home or road team.

So really, it all comes down to the moneylines and separation. I've re-done all my separation calcs, but it's quite dull and I doubt anyone cares. That's pretty much all there is to it.

LrdNikon · #**116** 09-21-2007, 05:43 PM

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Plus, like 35% of the field is on NE.

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We've got close to 70% on NE this weekend. 18/26. Myself included. We don't see the picks until after the deadline.

ProfessorBen · #**117** 09-24-2007, 06:24 PM

Is Week 4 San Diego starting to look bad?
Is Dallas starting to look good? (Jackson out)

Billy Bibbit · #**118** 09-24-2007, 06:33 PM

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Is Week 4 San Diego starting to look bad?
Is Dallas starting to look good? (Jackson out)

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Well, those are your two choices. I still haven't decided which one of them I'm going to be on.

DonkeyKongSr · #**119** 09-24-2007, 07:08 PM

Only two players in my league dropped out and only 2 others were on NE. That leaves 8 of us.

I may switch my SD pick to Dallas this week and save SD possibly for Oakland in 3 weeks when they'll hopefully get things going. St. Louis without Jackson and missing yet another OL is a bad team. Dallas's best home matchup otherwise is Minny in a few weeks, but I may not be as comfortable with that as I am with StL right now.

Tyler Durden · #**120** 09-25-2007, 09:34 PM

I've got Dallas this week. I've already used Pittsburgh, Baltimore and New England.

I made a bet w/ a friend about who would do better in this if he made all his picks ahead of time and I made mine week to week. He has the Texans on the road vs. Atlanta this week. So I will win the bet w/ a Houston loss and a Dallas victory.