Line check with FD and 2 overs

[cowboy.up]

No reads - except he likes to attempt to steal a lot, but I'm always unsure of the best course of action in a situation like this:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($56.50)
Button ($44.30)
Hero ($64.90)
BB ($50)
UTG ($35.70)
MP ($36.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($5) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $9</font>, Hero...?

Is this a call or a push? I figure in most situations I have 15 outs but what are your thoughts?

Same situation on this hand:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($33.55)
BB ($51.45)
UTG ($55.55)
MP ($46.75)
Hero ($51.80)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $6.5</font>, Hero...?

[CmnDwnWrkn]

In Hand 1, you can't count all 15 outs as true outs, because those 15 cards won't always give you the best hand. This is the concept of "Discounted Outs". For example, sometimes a diamond will hit but your opponent will have a better flush. Or a jack or queen hits giving you one pair, but your opponent has two pair, a set, or whatever.

I like to be conservative, so I would say you have ten outs. Depending on who you ask, it might be more. The point is, you don't really have 60% pure pot equity. But even 40% coupled with fold equity and the possibility that the button might be running a bluff makes this a good pushing opporunity. I don't like a call because you are in a tough spot if your hand doesn't improve on the turn. Same thing with hand 2.

[Restlys]

fold pf on hand one, way too loose to call cuz of position and the times when utg is doing a limp/raise and the times when buttons has you beat with a real hand with which he raised...you dont blind steal with the EP limped...at least i dont believe you do.
Bottom line, ive learned this from the handcharts of cardrunners, so ask them if you want to know other reasons :P

hand 2 : second situation seems to be a minor mistake wat ever the decision might be, people dont play this way with Q or J high flush so you are going to meet A high flush too often, and the odds just do not warrant a call from your overcards
talking about your outs : they might be worst cuz you might be drawing dead so a set miner and you pair the board and such.....i dont see you continuing this hand cuz of all of this and you are not the aggressor, something i find very important.

[hitch1978]

Hand 1, I push my big draw with 2 chances to win the pot.

Hand 2 I fold due to a combination of the agressive action I see and not knowing how many of my outs are clean.

[panda]

Hand 1 is a fold preflop, unless buttons attempts to steal is over 30%, in which case this is a good hand to 3-bet if you haven't done so much against him. Then, your donk bet is weak, the kind of player who understands the importance of stealing is very likely to reraise you here. You should not be donk betting this hand unless you are 100% certain you will push over a reraise.

Your equity in these pots is far smaller than you have estimated, once you take into account villains possible holdings. I could quite easily find a fold in the first one, however it is very villain and flow dependent. Hand 2 is an easy fold. You are not closing the betting and thus cannot call. Raising here every time would be a big spew too.

[cowboy.up]

OK - so in hand one, would we raise the flop to 12-15 then?

And in hand 2 - would a c/r and if played back fold be a better play? Or just straight up fold? I look at these hands and feel that I'm being too tight by folding in these spots - but then again maybe i'm just overestimating hand strength.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
OK - so in hand one, would we raise the flop to 12-15 then?

And in hand 2 - would a c/r and if played back fold be a better play? Or just straight up fold? I look at these hands and feel that I'm being too tight by folding in these spots - but then again maybe i'm just overestimating hand strength.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand 1, if we continue past this point, it's a shove or fold. Raising to 12/15 is horrible because it has no fold equity....basically if villain has a hand/overpair he's shipping it in and now you are forced to call with whats in the pot.

Hand 2 is pretty easy fold with the action that you have seen so far, not like you hold a made hand and this action looks like a set here quite often.

[spivey]

Hand one, your read is vague so shoving/folding are both ok. Probably fold though.

Hand 2 fold.

[orange]

1-donking and folding is horrible. you should generally have a plan when you donk (and how you'll handle a raise).

i would probably 3bet (shove) if i donked.

2- dump or shove.

[cowboy.up]

So the $3 bet on the flop in hand one was a donk bet? - are we looking at a PSB to lead instead (if we're betting) - or would the majority c/f instead of lead out and fold to aggression?