TPTK has met river All In conforntation...

[StarRain]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">UTG ($200)</font>
UTG+1 ($30)
MP1 ($150.80)
MP2 ($191.20)
MP3 ($200)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($399.30)</font>
Button ($62.45)
SB ($335.25)
BB ($361.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $8.

Flop: ($23) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $38</font>, Hero calls $22.

Turn: ($99) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $50</font>, Hero calls $50.

River: ($199) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $102 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?

Final Pot:

[futuredoc85]

any reads at all? if hes aggro atall im probably shoving turn. what exactly do you beat on the river?

[StarRain]

He runs @ 12/5/0.8
However, since he is a regular, we play against each other pretty often. He may have a set/represent a set/ limp AK

[Oxy]

This is just good betting by him (always giving you 3-1 when you're massively behind) and I wouldn't be surprised to see you beat by 88/66 fairly often here (if not KK/AA).

Do his 12/5/0.8 stats reflect at all how he plays against you? Is he capable of doing this with air? If someone with those stats did this to me, it'd be an instafold on the flop.

[CanSpoilU]

I had an exact same hand today AKo TPTK... but against a more LAGGY unknown.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...e=0#Post9786025

Line was exactly like yours. I raise PF, cold call, check, bet, reraise, then off to valuetown.

River bet was just like yours too.... half pot. I ended up calling it and he showed a set.

If the guy I was up against had your villan's stats... i fold river. I called because my villan was laggy. I wish my decision was as easy as yours. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Albert Moulton]

River seems like a fold.

If he was semi-bluffing with some kind of flush draw, then he got there on the end with XhXh.

If he wasn't semi-bluffing with a flush draw, then you only beat a hand like KQ. But why would he c/r the flop and lead the turn with KQ? Why wouldn't he have just limp/folded that preflop? And if he'd play KQ, then he'd play KJ - which would be 2-pair.

The rest looks reasonable. With a read on when villain uses the limp/call preflop, c/r flop line you might be able to fold to the turn lead. Some people never bet draws like this. If he is one of those players, then you could probably fold.

Without any read, or if he likes to play draws like this but likes to play his sets some other way (i.e. you've seen him lead with sets, but c/r with big draws) then this line looks ok.

Edit He runs @ 12/5/0.8. I just saw this add on to the OP. I think he would have raised AK/KK preflop, or maybe even limp/reraised. His AGG post flop isn't the kind that usually c/r's draws. I think you can fold to the turn lead. In fact, vs this particular guy, you could probably fold to the c/r on the flop and be correct the vast majority of the time. His stats look a little like a TAG preflop/nut-peddler post flop. Don't give him much action post flop.

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can fold to the turn lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't fold the nut flush draw which came in through the out door getting 3 to 1 on the turn, can you? Especially adding in the equity of the slight chance your hand is actually good at this point. Any hand which is ahead of you now has to pay you on the river.

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, vs this particular guy, you could probably fold to the c/r on the flop and be correct the vast majority of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This however, is a reasonable option, if you know your guy. If he plays AK this way sometimes, maybe you can still fold here since you're basically just hoping for a chop. If he'll c/r you with air (77,99,etc.)in this spot, then you've got to call here, but it doesn't sounds that likely with his .8AF.

[StarRain]

I think he is probably a 2+2er since he plays a lot (He usually sits in like 9 out of my 12 tables at the same time). I have around 5000 hands database on him. How many of you guys think that he is capable of bluffing in this case coz he knew I could lay down TPTK in that spot fairly easy?

[Raised2Win]

You can beat a complete bluff, is he on a complete bluff 25% of the time ? I don't know, but most 15/5 aren't. Against some opponents u might want to consider folding that turn.