TT - $4/180 bubble decision

dz360 · #1 08-21-2007, 03:48 AM

There are 20 players left. No pt or pokerace stats.
Table has been fairly tight with the majority of PF raises taking down the pot. Villain has been fairly tight and was severely shortstacked until doubling up with 99. No reads on the button

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t10504)
Hero (t14469)
MP1 (t16810)
MP2 (t13285)
CO (t14255)
Button (t13195)
SB (t8629)
BB (t16735)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T

, T

.
1 fold, Hero raises to t2475</font>, 3 folds[/i], Button calls t2400, SB raises to t8629, 1 fold, Hero????

Final Pot: t7800

Mr.WeakTight · #2 08-21-2007, 04:01 AM

push, hoping to isolate. it could be a bubble steal move, you've got a medium pair.

sah_24 · #3 08-21-2007, 04:13 AM

im gambling here the bubble seems to b real loose and wit his stack he could b shovin a lower pair or ur racing wit ak probably since the pot is so big im gambling here in order to take a chance to win since top 3 is where u need to b in the end. U have to play these to win and it is a 4 dollar tourney so most players are real loose aggro players

dz360 · #4 08-21-2007, 04:11 PM

Well I didn't mention that in the last orbit I raised 3xbb in MP only to have it folded around to me, showing QQ. So if SB has been paying attention, he knows that I would be raising hands with solid value UTG+1 (AA-66, AK-AQ). SB has also seen a caller with the button, which doesn't necessarily mean much. But for him to make that pot towards the pot, I couldn't interpret it as a resteal since given the odds I would be correct to call with any pockets, AK.
My thinking process could be flawed in this one tho.

cheburashka · #5 08-21-2007, 04:34 PM

I dunno if I would give your opponent credit for paying attention, and besides, just because you have QQ one time doesn't mean you're not FOS another time.

So I would expect a reasonably wide range from a villain with an M of just over 5. AK might think he's getting excellent odds to race against two lower pairs. 66-99 might see multiple callers duplicating the high cards. So since you're really only afraid of 5 hands, I would shove here.

Of course, I'm on a horrible losing streak right now, so my thinking process could be flawed as well.