Is there value in this river bet?

T-God · #1 06-06-2007, 07:48 PM

Cryptologic Network Pot-Limit , $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($334.85)
MP ($127.15)
Button ($249.57)
SB ($348.50)
BB ($243)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $7, MP calls $7, Button calls $7, 2 folds.

Flop: ($24) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $17, MP folds, Button calls $17.

Turn: ($58) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $58, Button calls $58.

River: ($174) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $174

No reads, sorry. I'm assuming a standard passive taggish player since he hasn't stood out any.

Bavid Denyamine · #2 06-06-2007, 08:02 PM

I would say no, since no hand you beat is calling a river bet that big.

mixmastermattyk · #3 06-06-2007, 09:20 PM

There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of value in this river bet, I don't think. The only possible hands that would call the river bet (that you beat) are a set of 9s or 4s that were afraid you had aces (and called you down anyway), or a seriously donkish two pair. What do you think are the likelihood he holds these hands? The other hands that call a bet that puts them all-in here are back door straights or flushes. Given the size of the bet and the strength you're shown, if you are called on the river you are fare more likely to be shown one of these hands.

Your other options are a far smaller value bet (1/2 pot or less) or if you fear a backdoor draw you could put a blocker bet, or otherwise check/call hoping he bluffs missed diamonds.

If villain isn't bad, he's unlikely calling the turn pot-bet without a flush draw + another draw (straight draw/spades). This river is fairly dangerous, but most of the time I'll check/call here, which could possibly be a leak, but I think it's far more +EV than a pot-sized value bet on this board.

TxRedMan · #4 06-07-2007, 01:40 AM

if you're villain, what hands are you calling with?

there's your answer.

RoundTower · #5 06-07-2007, 04:27 AM

I don't think so. You might get a call from a set, but I don't think that is all that likely. It's entirely possible he has spades, even the nut spades, since 2 pair or top pair is a likely hand for him to call with on the flop. If anything, I think you might fold out a straight here.

chucky · #6 06-07-2007, 05:25 AM

If he is so taggish/ he cant be that passive. Since you are raising utg, I assume this has tightened your distribution a little. I have to think he has straight draw flush draw combo on turn, Stacks are deep enough on flop he may call it with flush draw/weak str8 draw or fd/back fd combo hu. That said, the turn he is calling 29bb bet with 113bb behind, 27% of stack is awful lot for diamond flush draw. Sets play back at you on this turn, so when the river spade hits, I dont think you should ever bet more than 1/3 to 1/2 pot. That gives villian between 4 to 1 and 3 to 1 on call, while allowing you to folds to all reraises.

iggymcfly · #7 06-07-2007, 11:07 AM

I hate this river bet. You're never getting called by a worse hand and you're rarely folding anything better. You're going to be up against a diamond draw a lot though, so this is a good spot to check and induce a bluff. Alternately, against a passive/uncreative opponent, you could try making a really small bet around 1/4 of the pot to get called by a smaller set and then fold to a raise. I really don't like the line you took here though. I'd probably rank the best lines as follows:

1. Check/reevaluate (call or fold depending on reads)
2. Check/call any
3. Small blocker bet/fold
4. Check/fold
5. Small blocker bet/reevaluate
6. Small blocker bet/call (could actually be best against a really tricky aggressive opponent
7. Half pot bet
8. Full pot bet