10NL trying to work out EV

[MrWooster]

I am trying to work out if a call in these two hands is + or -EV...

I am assuming in both cases that if I make my hand I am going to win...

Hand 1)

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">Button ($10.64)</font>
Hero ($15.36)
BB ($14.26)
UTG ($10.42)
MP ($4.09)
CO ($11.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.4</font>, Hero calls $0.35, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($0.90) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $10.24 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...


So... here goes:

First off - I think a flat call would have been better on the flop... I have a read on this guy that he raised PPs pf but folded if he did not hit, but anyways - flop c/r is bad - but do I call shove?

Pot is 10+3+1 = ~14
I need to call ~7 more
I have 9 outs = 9x2x2 = ~35% chance to make my flush

So = EV = (-7*0.65)+(14*0.35) = -4.55 + 5 = 0.45 = so a call is very marginal here and probably neutral EV?



Hand 2)

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">MP ($12.83)</font>
Hero ($9.85)
SB ($13.73)
BB ($5.78)
UTG ($12.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $0.10, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.8</font>, MP calls $0.80.

Turn: ($2.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $11.53 (All-In)</font>, Hero ...

Ok -&gt;

Pot is 11.5+1.7+2.75 = ~ 16
I need to call 10 more
I have 12 outs = 12*2 = ~25% chance of making my hand

EV = (-10*0.75)+(16*0.25) = -7.5 + 4 = -3.5 so -EV




Please can my calculations be checked and advise me as to if I am calculating EV correctly

Thanks

[Perk76]

How should you figure in the probability that you are even drawing live in hand 1? AhKh, AhQh, Ah10h, KhQh should be in villans range. I am not sure how you throw that in there, but I would think it would make your call -EV.

And I think your outs in hand 2 are off by at least 1 due to heart flush going the other way.

[resboard]

I'm not really a math guy so i can't help there but they calculations look good, but like Perk76 said in the first hand i doubt you are good that full 35% if you do hit.

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

[Eric Yang]

[ QUOTE ]

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

[/ QUOTE ]

just wondering, why do you say he should check behind for pot control? It seems better to bet with folding equity/flush draw/straight draw, especially since villain has been passive. correct me if i'm wrong.

[Jw513]

I dont now abut hand 1,

but for hand 2, it seems -EV just based on pot odds.

[MrWooster]

Thanks for the replies - but I am not really looking for comments on how I played that hands but rather how well I worked out the EV.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Second hand, if you check behind for pot control you save this headache.

[/ QUOTE ]

just wondering, why do you say he should check behind for pot control? It seems better to bet with folding equity/flush draw/straight draw, especially since villain has been passive. correct me if i'm wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think we have much FE here. The 5d is not going to scare villain if he was calling with TP +, and if he was willing to call with a draw on the flop he'll probably do so again on the turn.

I also like checking behind because our flush is well disguised if we hit it.

[Quester]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the replies - but I am not really looking for comments on how I played that hands but rather how well I worked out the EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your calculations are close enough, but you need to learn how to use discounted outs instead of naive outs.

Hand 1 - You don't have 9 outs. You need to consider the possibility that your villain is drawing to a better flush. This means that you probably have 8 outs at most.

Hand 2 - You don't have 12 outs. You should discount the 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. And indeed, maybe partially the other three Q's as well as villain may have AT so a Q will give him a higher straight. I'd say you have 9-9.5 outs here.

[Student Caine]

In both hands you need to discount your flush because it is not the nuts and it is subject to redraws (2 pair/trips/set making a full house).

[carnivalhobo]

this discounted outs stuff is fine for some quick in game stuff, but really you guys need to work with pokerstove and learn how these hands do against a reasonable RANGE for villain not just how many outs you think you have.