9/22 Movie Betting

[Poiuytr]

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Lol, when I read your post I wondered what college town you lived in then saw who you are as I live here too, but I haven't heard much of a buzz. Personally I'm really excited to see it, but I won't make it this weekend.

Any idea how many screens the original Jackass opened on and what it was against?

-Craig

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The first Jackass did 22.76mm on 2,509 screens for a 9k average. And that was going up against the second weekend of the ring which did 18.48mm, and the 1st week of Ghost Ship which did 11,50mm.

[BobJoeJim]

I don't see any reason to think the Jackass sequel will possibly even come CLOSE to the first one... I mean I didn't even know they were making a sequel until I saw a preview yesterday. I agree with Thremp... "Painfully dated." I couldn't wait for the first Jackass, and saw it opening weekend. This one, I doubt I'll ever watch.

I know nothing about actually betting these kind of things though.

[Thremp]

Meh I got +120. Might add units if I see odds swing in my favor. I could see this ending up like SoaP. I'd like to get some other opinions BAH!

Lines moving my way on both picks. Grab em.

[rawl316]

yuck, it was just at +146 too... I may hold off, I can't see jackass 2 under getting worse than -125

[Thremp]

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yuck, it was just at +146 too... I may hold off, I can't see jackass 2 under getting worse than -125

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I don't think its gonna end up like SoaP though it may. Years of Youtube and ebaums has turned the internet nerd to probably love Jackass.

[rutang]

All the King's Men is getting kicked in the shitter in reviews - but 6 mil seems low enough that it's not a great bet at this price. I like the Jackass under and that's all i'm taking this week.

Once again i'm a few hours behind getting the opening line and i lost a bunch of value.

I thinks flyboys is likely under, but at -150 i'm leaving it alone.

[Utah]

I have been super busy so I havent done proper analysis. However, here are my off the cuff comments.

I like Jackass 2 under but only at good odds. I got in at +150 under. Nothing is doing great and there is not reason to think this will be huge - if it was going to be big then why are they releasing in september? I get the feeling this is a "I want to see it but when it comes out on DVD" type movie. There seems to be great buzz though and it is still a hot brand. I think I read tracking is at around $19m. I say 60/40 under.

Flyboys - I love this movie and I am heavy on the over at +136 and I will keep buying if it goes up or if there is an absence of any new news pointing to the under. The reviews suck but I think the movie looks awesome and they were showing adds during the football sunday and all my friends commented they wanted to see this movie. There was an ad tonight and Mrs. Utah said that movie would interest her. Plus, I see ads every 2 seconds for this movie. I have no idea what the tracking is at but the tracking has been pretty worthless lately anyway. I give this movie 90/10 on the over.

Fearless - I think this line is pretty close with a slightly leaning towards the over. However. I took the under but simply because I got +140 or so. All Jet Li movies do awesomely and the reviews for this are strong. This is being released here after the global release and the global release was not stellar. However, if you take his worst theater average and multiply it by the number of theaters it is right on the number. I cant see why this would be worse than his last movie. Maybe I am missing something.

All the Kings men. I know nothing about this movie. However, even though the reviews suck I wouldnt bank against a movie with so many stars and such a low total. I cant see how this doesnt worse than hollywoodland, except it is competing against 2 other movies for the same crowd base.