Tricky flop/turn spot 5/10 PLO8

Borys313 · #1 08-18-2007, 10:54 PM

Villian looks like a winning player, not really crazy for sure. Since I have the nut flush draw no idea what does he have??

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha/8, $10 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($1117)
MP2 ($1123.75)
MP3 ($786.25)
CO ($580)
Button ($1032.75)
SB ($1265)
BB ($1260.50)
UTG ($200)
Hero ($1801.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls $10, 4 folds, Button calls $10, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($40) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $38, Button raises to $152, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $114.

Turn: ($344) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $341, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $344

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Button wins $344. 

Is my fold to nitty? Anyone play different here?

tvent37 · #2 08-18-2007, 11:22 PM

This flop needs to be repotted. You most likely have the best hand AND a three bet might get a set of 3s to lay down, I dont think he has AA because most people in my experience arent limping AA on the button. Also a 3 bet makes the turn much easier to play, an auto shove on no 2 4 or 5. As played unfortunately the turn is a fold because you NEVER win against a made low especially if its a wrap low, if its a naked 24 you might be able to 3/4 with a 4 but hoping for 3 outers to 3/4 the pot is a bad idea.

Omaha8sPoker · #3 08-18-2007, 11:42 PM

If I had to guess I'd say it's some sort of wheel wrap with low diamonds...I mean I don't think I'd be committing a whole lotta chips here with a set this early, but that's just me...I'd definitely play a wheel wrap with diamonds like this becuase even if I didn't get you to fold I'd have a helluva lotta outs to make my hand, even if you did have what you had...

As the turn came down...I'd most likely muck here not wanting to dodge for 1/2 the pot...But again I'm a nit in these type of situations...

Borys313 · #4 08-18-2007, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If I had to guess I'd say it's some sort of wheel wrap with low diamonds...I mean I don't think I'd be committing a whole lotta chips here with a set this early, but that's just me...I'd definitely play a wheel wrap with diamonds like this becuase even if I didn't get you to fold I'd have a helluva lotta outs to make my hand, even if you did have what you had...

As the turn came down...I'd most likely muck here not wanting to dodge for 1/2 the pot...But again I'm a nit in these type of situations...

[/ QUOTE ]

Low diamonds were my guess so I intended to just call and then check-raise all in any good card that is any diamond, any high 9 thru A.
Although something like 2334 is also possible, but you have to go broke sometimes. Anyway on turn I didnt want to continue since he will put me all in like always.

neverforgetlol · #5 08-18-2007, 11:59 PM

wow i would def. 4bet the flop

TxRedMan · #6 08-19-2007, 12:32 AM

This is a spot that is grossly misplayed by most people holding your hand. I really dont like re-potting this flop unless my oponent is too aggressive or just sucks. IMO, you're usually going to be a coin flip on the flop if you get it in there, and you'll be a 3-2 dog more often than you're going to be a favorite. That said, I like your line on the flop and the turn. It changes a bunch if there's someone else in the pot with you, but on the turn you're heads up and you'll be committing a ton of chips with a very small chance to scoop and you still cant beat a set of threes and imho the majority of your opponents hands will have a free roll on you.

Tough play, hard to rationalize folding unless you've played a lot of PLO8, but you played the hand well. Besides, there's a healthy amount of turn cards where you can get your chips in with much more equity.

This is a great situation to see a safe turn card, and on the flop and turn, it's the old maxim about picking a better spot.

jlocdog · #7 08-19-2007, 12:41 AM

Tx,

You really think we are behind here 3 to 2 often enough to warrant just peeling and folding to a blank turn? I have to believe he has lower diamonds with a worse Ace or some other combo back door meddle that includes pairs...

I also don't like calling with the intention of raising a blank turn because most turns aren't blanks for us. Any 8- and we now worry about an additional low draw against us and any 9-Q and we may have gotten straighted/setted. Really only an A/K seems like a good turn. Because of this my decision on whether or not to rock n roll is on the flop and I make a decisive raise to show commitment.

Omaha8sPoker · #8 08-19-2007, 01:02 AM

Borys analyzed it correctly...This hand SCREAMS wheel wrap with diamonds...Any card that isn't a low is a safe card for us (MAYBE not a 3, but that's opening up a whole 'nuther can of worms)...

I agree with Tex, I don't think you can 4-bet here...You just aren't enough of a favorite to 4-bet the flop...I would much rather commit my stack to this pot after I see the turn card...

Some of you may say that is being a tight nit, but I would rather stick it in when I'm 60-67% to win the hand (or whatever a blank turn would make me) than when I'm ~50% when the stacks are this deep...

I always want to be at the point of freerollin' my opponent not vice versa...Granted borys has diamond blockers on some of the opponent's wheel outs, but not worth stickin' in another $350 just to HOPE that a non-dimaond 65432 doesn't come...

EDIT: I forgot to add, yeah the 2334 scenario...Really can't be looking for monsters in the closet...That's a [censored] happens scenario...

HOWMANY · #9 08-19-2007, 02:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it's the old maxim about picking a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you need to pick a better spot? If this spot is profitable then that is all that matters. If you lose you just rebuy, this isn't a donkament.

TxRedMan · #10 08-19-2007, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it's the old maxim about picking a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you need to pick a better spot? If this spot is profitable then that is all that matters. If you lose you just rebuy, this isn't a donkament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really, this isn't a donkament? You don't say.

Your response isn't very intelligent. It's as if you're inferring that I reccomend folding a slightly profitable hand in favor of waiting for an even more profitable spot. I am more than aware that you can click rebuy or pull cash out of your pocket and continue playing.

The point is that while the majority of the time OP will be in a coin flip situation with his opponent, the times when he's a 60/40 dog far outweigh the times when he's a 60/40 favorite, thus making this spot -EV, and OP's line optimal.

The reason this hand is so grossly misplayed is because it's so often a coinflip when the money goes in on the flop, but rarely is your opponent going to stack off here with a hand you have dominated.

Against a wheel wrap, it's a coin flip. Against bottom set and any low draw OP is a 60/40 dog. Against a set of kings or aces and a low draw it's even worse obviously. For us to be a 60/40 favorite our opponent has to be willing to stack off with a hand like the nut low draw and some pocket pair or similar.

Everything is relative. In poker too many players see this hand and this flop and think they have a monster. But this monster is only relative to what your opponent holds. That's why I say this hand is grossly misplayed by many players. Top two and the nut flush draw can be a monster, but it's all relative, and many players dont stop to consider their action in this spot, they just auto-shove.