99 facing heavy action from pf capper, call down or fold?

[yourface]

SB has TAG stats over a small sample 23/16
he just lost the last hand to a runner runner counterfiet of his 2pair, so tilt is a possibility. also he is sitting on a 5.5BB stack.

UTG is 61/6/1.7/retarded over 127 hands.

Poker Room skin
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB caps</font>, hero calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

trying to pushout the limpers

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (12SB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises</font>, UTG calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB 3-bets</font>, hero calls, UTG calls.

trying to protect my hand from the limpers. UTGs call can be any pair any draw or overcards.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.5BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, hero folds

after he 3bet the flop 3way I was pretty sure I was drawing to 2 outs, so I peeled getting odds. it sucks to fold the turn here in such a huge pot. I am getting around 7:1 effective odds on a calldown. am I ahead 12.5% of the time here?

[Fonzi]

The betting pattern exhibited by the small blind in this hand would indicate an overpair to me, rarely will a player give this much action without having something really strong. Perhaps he has the nut flush draw and your ahead, but with an overcard to your pair, a paired board, and the possibility of a bigger pp, I think a fold is the right play here. Not to mention a player behind who could still raise, reducing your odds if you decide to call.

[Profish2285]

As a side note, you cannot give yourself a clean two outs on the flop because you do not know if the 9 of spades hits if you will be good or not.

[mvoss]

Given his short stack and possible tilt I think we can call down here and see UI OC's often enough.

[yourface]

significanty more than 1 out though I'd say. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is only 1 hand in SBs range, and UTG can have tons of stuff here besides the flush draw. for example he had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in this hand.

now that I think about it more, the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will kind of kill our action because we would be representing the flush so we are unlikely to get many bets from a worse hand. it also sets up a redraw. maybe based purely on pot odds it should be a fold, but it's very close and for metagame I don't want to been seen to be raise/folding in this kind of big pot situation.

[Gurravasa]

I would call down against a shortstacked who could be on tilt. Often I think you can get some information from the speed in his betting in this situations. If he bets really fast and raises you raises without thinking or even pretend to think, a tilt is likely. Otherwise he is supersmart and simulating a tilt with a monster, but that not very likely [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]...

[Profish2285]

I am not talking about only AK suited, why cant UTG have a hand like QJ, or like you said, the 9 of spades kills our action against anything except a better hand and sets up possible redraws.

[KitanaiCALL]

good fold.

[gehrig]

wtf dont fold the pot is huge and 3/6 tags cant play postflop so dont give him credit for not having AQdd

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
Given his short stack and possible tilt I think we can call down here and see UI OC's often enough.

[/ QUOTE ] As a general rule, I'm always happy to get it all in against a possibly tilting micro-stack when I have a playable hand. You'll see A3 or K7 plenty often here.

Edit: also, the board is paired so 9s is still an out.