NL1000 shortstack - should I bet river here...?

[LSP16]

Hand 2101756479, Started at 20/09/2007 14:00:55 - Blinds : 0 / 0

Seat 0 : vilain (41000 in chips)
Seat 1 : LSP16 (38900 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
LSP16 : Dealer
LSP16 : Post Blind (500)
vilain : Post Blind (1000)
Dealt to LSP16 :

PRE-FLOP
LSP16 : Raise (2500)
vilain : Call (2000)

Pot : 5900 (rake : 100)


FLOP


fish4life : Check
LSP16 : Bet (3500)
vilain : Call (3500)

Pot : 12900 (rake : 100)


TURN


vilain : Check
LSP16 : Check

Pot : 12900 (rake : 100)


RIVER


vilain : Check
LSP16 : ????

[AbreuTime]

Is this a tournament hand?

I valubet river about 2/3 pot, fold to raise.

[LSP16]

No its Cash game.. converter is **** up

[Scansion]

Valuetown. With my gamestyle I pot it, but probably 80-90 here is good.

[creedofhubris]

depends how aggro you are and how much of a calling station he is. I personally think there's little value in a bet.

if you think he's playing Jx sooooted preflop and/or he's calling you down with an 8 then it's a clear bet, otherwise it's prolly not worth much either way.

He shows up with a queen and a better jack quite often here if he's tight preflop.

[xSCWx]

[ QUOTE ]
Valuetown. With my gamestyle I pot it

[/ QUOTE ]

[Perestroika]

Scansion do you find yourself being raised on the river often? This isn't condescending but I am truly interested. It seems to me that if your willing to value bet this river, that you will be getting c/r all-in on the river more often. Really bad obtuse follow up: how do you judge if they are bluffing you if they do?

[Perestroika]

Oh as an aside, I don't necessarily think that value betting this is particularly bad I do it from time to time, but it appears not quite with the conviction of many posters here. To me I feel that a lot of opponents do not have worse jacks here, and can call, thus leaving us open to bluff raise, over and above the value we may get from 99, A8, etc.

[LSP16]

I had no info on vilain....it's like 3rd or 4th hand against him...
I was scared of a stronger Jack so I checked it down.

[Scansion]

I don't really get check-raise bluffed on the river often. I've looked people up unsuccessfully enough to really know that people don't check-raise bluff rivers much.

As a matter of fact, I don't really get check-raised much on the river. Here's the thing- if people have a big hand, and I'm being super-aggro, they will let me know on the turn. I'm checking behind a mediocre hand way too much on the river for them to wait until then to try and check-raise. If they are going to play it passively, they are probably just going to check/call me all the way down, which can very often be three pot-bets for a total pot of a buyin and a half. Bottom line is, people don't check-raise the river much, at least in my experience. Perhaps it's just my gamestyle, but I really haven't seen it much, and if they do, it's usually not a bluff.