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Old 05-10-2007, 11:35 AM
Pudge714 Pudge714 is offline
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Default 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

A lot of people have trouble playing in midgame. There are two reasons for this one is a lot of people donít have good enough reads so they make plays which are fine against unknowns, but if they actually played with the player for awhile longer they would realize the play is sucks against that particular opponent. The bigger problem is that people donít consider all the possible outcomes of an action and that depending on stack sizes there are clear right plays. Here is hand that slimon posted a while ago.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1186)
UTG+1 (t1955)
MP1 (t1424)
CO (t1485)
Button (t925)
SB (t5165)
Hero (t1360)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, MP1 calls t150, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t75, Hero checks

Flop: (t450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t1210 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>

When the flop first comes to us we have three options (I know we technically have infinite options, but donít be nits.) open-shove, bet 300-450, check shove.
In this hand all better hands will stack off so we donít need to worry about getting better hands to fold, what we need to do is get worse hands to pay us off. To think about this we need to consider all possible options.
When you openshove there are three possible scenarios. Iím ignoring situations with three way allins because it is such a rare circumstance.
It gets folded.
You get called by worse.
You get called by better.
If you bet 300 there are five scenarios
It gets folded.
You get called by worse
You get called by better
You get shoved on by worse
You get shoved on by better.
If you check there are three options
It checks though
A better hand bets
A worse hand bets

As I stated earlier we will always stack off to better hands so letís ignore all cases were opponents have better hands because it is irrelevant how we play them.

Our goal in this spot is to maximize the range of worse hands that the villain can have.

As a general rule we can assume the following.
All worse hands which fold to 300 bet will fold to an openshove.
All worse hands that call an openshove will call a bet of 300.

Therefore his range of worse calling hands are wider when you bet 300 than when you shove. Therefore we can see that betting 300 is better than openshoving.

That leaves us with two options betting 300 or checking with the intention of shoving.
Again we need to consider all options.
If we get called on the flop we need to shove any turn as we will have a psb left and canít fold. The value we get out of this hand is only based on the villains flop calling range.

If we check the flop and it checks through everyone think that is a disaster, but not necessarily. Most villains will bet the flop with a draw here and villains will occasionally bet this flop with air. So you can get value out of hands which will fold to a bet on this flop.

A criticism to checking this flop is what if the following happens.

Flop: (t450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: t(450) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

First off turn cards like this will happen fairly rarely. Secondly itís still a really easy bet call. You have two pair 3psb behind people will shove here with any K, JT, QT, Bare ace of diamonds and lots of two pairs, sets and huge combodraws are unlikely because people will raise preflop or bet the flop with them.

The bigger reason why checkshoving the flop is when this happens.
Flop: (t450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets 300, SB folds, Hero makes the easiest shove in the world as he is a psb behind and two pair, SB calls with a stupid hand because he is committed or folds complete air.

Compared to
Flop: (t450) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t300 </font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>
Where MP1 folds a hand he would be inclined to bluff with.
Our goal is to get villain to put money in the pot with the worse hand and for almost all villains.
Their flop betting ranges are wider than their flop calling ranges which makes checkshoving a much better option.
The key to this hand is stacksizes if you were deeper betting to build a pot and price draws would be a better play especially since checkraising would leave you in a lot of awkward turn spots, but when you have a hand you are willing to felt and are left with a 3-4x pot behind checkshoving is pretty much always a good play.

There are spots where I would lead with strongish hands on drawy boards here is an example the KevinB1423 posted
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1490)
Hero (t1470)
MP1 (t1580)
MP2 (t1410)
MP3 (t1510)
CO (t1800)
Button (t1170)
SB (t1560)
BB (t1510)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, MP2 calls t90, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t315) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t120</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero calls t120

Turn: (t555) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t210</font>, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop you can
Check/call
Check/raise
Check/fold
Bet/3-bet
Bet/fold
Bet/call.

Obviously checkfolding is awful as your hand has so much equity,
Bet folding is awful as your hand has so much equity.
Bet calling is awful as you will be left with Ĺ a psb on the turn where you might miss, but will need to get it in regardless.
Checkraising leads to a similar scenario. When the action gets back to you have 2x pot left. So your options are 2x shove which telegraphs your hand or check raise half your stack and shove any turn. Obviously neither of these options are good.
This is why it is important to consider all possible outcomes, when you decide your action, obviously just by looking at stack sizes and pot size checkraising and bet calling leaves you in such awkard spots.
That leaves the options being check/call or bet/3b.
I think the best play is bet/3-bet.
Here is why.
You maintain the impetus in the hand, you can get better hands like 99 or AT to fold, you can control the pot on the turn since you are in control of the hand. You can get worse flush draws to pay you off. Obviously if you get raised on this flop it is the easiest shove in the world. Lets say you get called.

Flop: (t315) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets 200, </font> MP2 calls 200, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>

Turn(715) If the turn is a queen or a club you obviously continue to value bet.
If it is an ace or a king, I continue to value bet as well. Although sometimes I might check turn value bet river.

Those situations are easy lets say the turn is the 2:spades: or any blank for that matter.
What do you do?
Obviously it is read dependent, but I think I bet 400-500 most of the time here with the intention of calling a shove, villain can call the flop with any two clubs, tons of straight draws, tons of midpairs, a lot of these hands will fold the turn and if they call you can check/fold a missed river, if they shove you call and hope to hit your million outer on the river.

There are certain turns I would check, for instance.
Turn: (t715) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
This turn can make you drawing to one out and can easily kill all of your ace and king outs. Furthermore it is a scare card for the villain so he will be unlikely to bluff at it or vbet a worse hand on that turn. I would check this turn and hope villain checks behind or makes a small enough bet I can call otherwise I would just check fold since villains turn betting range is weighted pretty heavily towards Jx.

If you check call the flop you will often leave yourself in situations like the one listed in the OP.

Flop: (t315) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t120</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, Hero calls t120

Turn: (t555) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets t210</font>, Hero?
On the flop I donít mind the call once you check you can preserve your chips you are getting really good pot odds so and checkraising leaves you in an awkward spot.
On the turn you obviously need to call getting such good odds.
The problem that ends up happening here is you are letting your opponent get to showdown with marginal made hands, which are better than you. I feel in this hand b/3betting is clearly the best play on this flop for the reasons listed.



Another example of hand where looking at all options and how they affect further streets is incredibly important is this hand, that spacegravy posted recently.
[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t860)
UTG+1 (t1825)
MP1 (t1060)
MP2 (t1595)
Hero (t1365)
Button (t2790)
SB (t1755)
BB (t2250)

Preflop: Hero is in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t300</font>, Button calls t300, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t750) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero? </font>

[/ QUOTE ]
In this thread I said that raising to250 is much better. Here I will explain further in depth.
On this flop hero has 1065 and the pot is 750. His options here a checkfold, bet/call, openshove. All of these options suck, but I would be inclined to bet/call since this is a fairly dry board and I think a bet like 500 has more FE than an open shove.


Consider if the hand was played this way.
Preflop: Hero is in CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t250</font>, Button calls t250, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t650) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero?</font>
In this spot here can easily make a Ĺ pot around 300. He can make a profitable c-bet here and still not be committed to call a shove. The difference of saving 50 chips preflop can save a lot on later streets. One easy example is this.
In 200NL HU assuming one pots every streets.
A preflop raise of 7 would lead to a final pot of.
2X7 + 2x14 + 2x42 + 2x126 = 378
A preflop raise of 6 would lead to a final pot of
2x6 + 2x12 + 2x36 + 2x108 = 324
In this case the principle is the same, except chip preservation is much more important and building a pot isnít as important which means the extra money you can save by making a slightly smaller preflop raise is much better.

Another simple example of a hand is this one.
You raise QQ t150 preflop in 25/50 sb calls, bb call.
Flop is 972 rainbow.
You bet 250 on the flop you get on caller.
On the turn you have 1100 and the pot is 950
If you bet 350 on the flop you are left with a much less awkward turn shove.


In the post I meticulously went through every possible play and each outcome. Obviously you cannot do what I did in game. What is important is to start thinking about this stuff, start putting people on ranges, start thinking about your stack size relative to pot size. Start making plays with an end goal in mind. Just because a play is play is +EV doesnít mean it is optimal or close to optimal in order to determine the optimal play one has to consider every play the outcome of each play, how different boards effect the equity of it, how your hand performs against villains ranges, how villain perceives your hand ranges, what better hands call, what worse hands fold. Since sngs are inherently robotic and there are so many correct plays oftentimes people donít think about why they are making plays, but just make them because that is what you are supposed to do. By thinking through different spots people can by creative and massively improve their game. Ultimately this will become second nature, you may not believe it now, but consider how many plays you consider standard or natural or second nature, at some point those plays were awkward or nonsensical to you. Hand reading and thinking are not that difficult if you focus and are reasonably intelligent, people are just too lazy to do it.
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  #2  
Old 05-10-2007, 11:43 AM
wiggs73 wiggs73 is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

I guess this is an OK post...




[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Obv great stuff Pudge. Thank you.
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  #3  
Old 05-10-2007, 11:53 AM
BHokie1 BHokie1 is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

VNH Pudge Thanks, you are huge asset to this forum, and congrats on 10k posts.
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Old 05-10-2007, 12:35 PM
CheeseMoney CheeseMoney is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

Nice.... makes me think that one of these days, I'll probably post something with some content in it... one of these days.
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Old 05-10-2007, 12:43 PM
Galwegian Galwegian is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

Great post - I particularly like the last hand analysis. I think that this is a point that many people overlook. They don'tmake these small variations in preflop raises on the grounds that the villains response (preflop) won't change much. However this reasoning ignores the consequences on later streets. A small variation in preflop raise can completely change the strategic options available on later streets in a crucial way especially when you are starting with effective stack around 15xBB. NH Pudge
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Old 05-10-2007, 12:55 PM
DLKeeper1 DLKeeper1 is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

very in depth thanks pudge
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Old 05-10-2007, 12:55 PM
AMT AMT is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

[ QUOTE ]
Moderator(s) notified of post. You will now be automatically returned to the forum

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] pudge


congrats on 10k, nice post.
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  #8  
Old 05-10-2007, 01:00 PM
diditmyway diditmyway is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

enjoyed it!, thanks
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Old 05-10-2007, 01:23 PM
Pudge714 Pudge714 is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

[ QUOTE ]
congrats on 10k posts.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks I guess, but I don't really consider it to be an accomplishment or something I am proud of.
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Old 05-10-2007, 01:27 PM
wiggs73 wiggs73 is offline
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Default Re: 10k Post. Manipulating Pot Size in Mid-Game

Pudge, whatever man. If chicks don't already dig the fact that you've made 10k posts on an online forum, just tell them that most came on the sub-forum that wiggs73 moderates. Then they will surely dig it.
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