Two Plus Two Newer Archives Fold this AK PF?
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#31
01-09-2007, 06:18 PM
 Lloyd Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: San Francisco Posts: 4,778
Re: Fold this AK PF?

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Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.

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A stop and go works only if you're first to act on the flop. That's not the case here.
#32
01-09-2007, 06:19 PM
 Lloyd Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: San Francisco Posts: 4,778
Re: Fold this AK PF?

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Lloyd,

When you're doing those calculations, do you ever take into account the percentage of time that villian is on a complete bluff? If so, what percentage do you use?

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In this example, I didn't. I think the chance that he's on a bluff aren't that great. And even if we say there's a 5% chance he's bluffing the results don't change dramatically.
#33
01-09-2007, 06:21 PM
 Lloyd Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: San Francisco Posts: 4,778
Re: Fold this AK PF?

AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

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According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

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You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.
#34
01-09-2007, 07:28 PM
 UtzChips Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 800
Re: Fold this AK PF?

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AQs, not AQ. You can do the math with AQ, that's just not what I did. There are only 3 possible holdings of AQs.

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, AK v. TT+,AK:
Wins 28.13 Loses 45.85% Draws 13.01%

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to be precise in PokerStove. What you ran is NOT the assumptions I gave. First of all, he doesn't have AK. He has AcKd. When he just put in AK it includes AKs as a possibility which will improve his chances. You're also putting in TT and JJ - all of the possibilities. If we say he'll fold TT/JJ half the time then you obviously can only use 3 of the 6 possible holdings for each of those hands.

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Lloyd,

How can you put in Hero's exact hand when you don't know Villian's? I did put in AKo, so hero was not given the advantage of being suited.
By not specifying the suits of Hero's hand, since we don't know the suits of Villian's, I am allowing for all possible combinations of suits between the two players, while keeping Hero's AK unsuited.

I would think you would also analyze with all possible pairs, as the suits make a difference. We "removed" 1/2 the pairs to determine how often Hero sees a Flop, however, when it comes to analyzing win% against the pairs I would think once again, that you have to analyze all possible suits. Pokerstove is analyzing all possibilities.

AKo v. TT+,AQs,AKo,AKs
wins 30.56%
Loses 44.82%
Draws 12.31%

If you run it with AcKd v. TT+AQs you get the same stats.
#35
01-09-2007, 07:30 PM
 0evg0 Senior Member Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: mano a mano Posts: 9,235
Re: Fold this AK PF?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is a stop-and-go ok here? Hero will be pushing ~8K into an ~12K pot on the flop, so I'm not sure about the FE even against whiffed mid pairs. Not that I mind a push.

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A stop and go works only if you're first to act on the flop. That's not the case here.

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Last time I checked, UTG1 acts before CO postflop.
#36
01-09-2007, 07:59 PM
 Lloyd Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: San Francisco Posts: 4,778
Re: Fold this AK PF?

Well, we know the hero's exact hand so that obviously should be entered. We also know that the villain cannot hold Ac or Kd. As far as JJ/TT, if the villain is folding half of those you HAVE to remove HALF of the possibilities from Pokerstove to be accurate. I don' think it makes a HUGE difference which you remove. Yes, it might diminish the possibility of making a flush but the hero will only win with a flush a fairly small percentage of the time. But you MUST remove half of the possibilities if you say the villain will only call with half.

In my first example, there were 36 possible hands of which the villain would fold 9 (AQs, half of TT, half of JJ). If you enter the villain's range in PokerStove as TT+, AK you're giving him 33 possibilities, not 27. If you only include half of TT and JJ, now you've got the correct 27 number of possibilities.
#37
01-09-2007, 08:01 PM
 Lloyd Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: San Francisco Posts: 4,778
Re: Fold this AK PF?

Ooops, thanks. I was responding back and forth on two similar hands and it was the other one the villain was in the SB.
#38
01-09-2007, 08:59 PM
 uclabruinz Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: waiting for march madness Posts: 4,389
Re: Fold this AK PF?

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I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

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I dont hate the fold. Also, UCLA, if I played like you I would often fold AK in that spot. However, given my image im pretty much always jamming and hating it.

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I would only take my image into account in a higher buyin tournament against someone I know or who I have a read on (as thinking and noticing me, etc.).

In a \$20 random tourney against a random player, I wouldn't fact image in here much at all.

We have just 20 BBs and so does villain. It's a nice raise by villain and he could do it with a bigger range then most think, definitely including AQ and even some random stuff.
#39
01-09-2007, 09:01 PM
 UtzChips Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 800
Re: Fold this AK PF?

[ QUOTE ]
Well, we know the hero's exact hand so that obviously should be entered. We also know that the villain cannot hold Ac or Kd. As far as JJ/TT, if the villain is folding half of those you HAVE to remove HALF of the possibilities from Pokerstove to be accurate. I don' think it makes a HUGE difference which you remove. Yes, it might diminish the possibility of making a flush but the hero will only win with a flush a fairly small percentage of the time. But you MUST remove half of the possibilities if you say the villain will only call with half.

In my first example, there were 36 possible hands of which the villain would fold 9 (AQs, half of TT, half of JJ). If you enter the villain's range in PokerStove as TT+, AK you're giving him 33 possibilities, not 27. If you only include half of TT and JJ, now you've got the correct 27 number of possibilities.

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Lloyd,

So how did you decide which 3 pairs of J's &amp; T's to use? Did you give them a chance to make a flush with both cards, or just one, or not at all?

I ran it with AKo v. TT+,AKo,AKs without specifying suits:
AKo wins 27.16% &amp; draws 13.23%

Are you looking at the equity where it's 40.392 for Hero and 59.608 for Villian? Is that what you are using to quote 40/60 Dog?

Hero may be a 40/60 Dog, but that's equity. Villian only wins 46.38% of the time &amp; ties 13.23%. That's where Villian's 60% equity comes into play.
#40
01-09-2007, 09:31 PM
 valenzuela Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Santiago, Chile Posts: 6,508
Re: Fold this AK PF?

Im pushing every time on that spot on every tournament without a very solid read. Top 30 in the leaderboard is not a very solid read IMO I shove.
However I usually have a wild image by the time I have 13k.

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