how many outs before raising/calling all in?

terminal111 · #1 06-11-2007, 10:39 PM

this happened today and I need advice (BADLY):

To build up this hand:

I had been playing this table for about an hour. I had what I thought was a good read on the villian. tightish but aggressive when in a pot. a few hands prior he called an all in bet from the flop with pocket 10s and outdraw pocket KKs.
I had also seen him raise PF when there were a few limpers to around 4 or 5 x bb in the blinds.
I had just lost a few hands and was looking to get into pots with him in position and (hopefully) stack him. I felt I had a good read on him and had limped with a few hands against him (in position) and dumped them when he got aggressive. So basically I had been building to this:

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($50.10)
SB ($12.90)
BB (villian) ($80.15)
UTG ($58.55)
UTG+1 ($23.75)
MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($59.30)
MP3 ($50.85)
Hero ($34.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB completes, BB (villian) raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, villian bets $7, Hero calls $7, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($22) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
villian bets $26, Hero calls $25.35 (All-In).

River: ($73.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)
.

Final Pot: $73.35

Results in white below: 
villian has Ts Tc (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has 7d 9s (two pair, nines and eights).
Outcome: villian wins $73.34. 

Now.. I put him on either an overpair (jacks) or A K/ A Q
I guessed that from the flop I had 13 outs (please correct me if I'm wrong) and according to the rule of 4 that gives me a 52% chance to improve to the winning hand by the river. I knew he would bet close to the pot on the flop as he always did, so felt with staying in the hand as I had decided from the flop I was seeing this through.

What shoudl I have done better? Should I have made a heavy/all in raise from the flop (giving me some fold equity), I didn't want to fold the turn, the pot was too big to let go... Any advice would be great...

bottomset · #2 06-11-2007, 10:40 PM

your preflop limp sucks balls, especially with the shorter stack, reload preflop

the rule of 4 overates big draws, 13outs is an underdog not a favorite, 14 is breakeven, 15 is a fav

Roger Mainfield · #3 06-11-2007, 11:13 PM

Ya I don't get this hand. Easy preflop fold, you say you have a read on villian, that he is too aggressive? Well your hand is bad and will very rarely flop a great hand. I would wait for pocket pairs and suited connectors and maybe take slightly worse odds preflop than go in with absolute JUNK. But as played call flop, fold turn. On the turn you are getting less than 2-1, and if you were only 50% on the flop, you aren't good enough to call now. That is unless you figure he was bluffing, but people don't double barrel much this low.

Fold preflop, call flop, fold turn

Renton · #4 06-12-2007, 04:46 AM

i think until you get better at poker you should pretty much never see the flop with 97o

22pajo · #5 06-12-2007, 06:35 AM

I am new to NLHE but i'm pretty sure this is a fold preflop.
I'd imagine this kind of hand can be played preflop but only by someone with lots of experience and even then i'd imagine its a raise to steal the blinds.

donkmagic · #6 06-12-2007, 06:51 AM

wtf shove the flop if you're going to continue. pf also sucks

Ampelmann · #7 06-12-2007, 07:11 AM

I have no idea why you particulary want to play against a TAG. I tend to avoid them. You don't get action when you have the better hand and when you do get action you're usually beaten.

This hand:

Reload before the hand. You're killing your implied odds by playing with a short stack (if you know what you're doing, about which I'm not sure).

Fold preflop. What flop are you hoping for that you will hit hard enough to put all chips in with villain also is also hitting good, but not so good as yourself? How often do these flops come by?

Flop: Either fold or shove, imo. Shove if you think he's capable to fold A9 or TT here.

As played, I fold the turn, given your read.

Why do you put him on an overpair or AK/AQ? He didn't raise preflop. Most TAGish players (correctly) raise these hands almost always. On the flop I'd much rather put him on 99, 88, 66, a flush draw or a straight draw with 77, although I don't know if he would bet this against 3 opponents.

Never show results!

RipperTEQ · #8 06-12-2007, 07:37 AM

Move down in stakes until you understand more about the game, that's my best advice for you. I played too high when I first started and busted, don't make the same mistake that thousands of others have made.

Specialwon · #9 06-12-2007, 07:40 AM

Try NL10 for a bit, it's very soft on Party.

effang · #10 06-12-2007, 10:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea why you particulary want to play against a TAG. I tend to avoid them. You don't get action when you have the better hand and when you do get action you're usually beaten.

This hand:

Reload before the hand. You're killing your implied odds by playing with a short stack (if you know what you're doing, about which I'm not sure).

Fold preflop. What flop are you hoping for that you will hit hard enough to put all chips in with villain also is also hitting good, but not so good as yourself? How often do these flops come by?

Flop: Either fold or shove, imo. Shove if you think he's capable to fold A9 or TT here.

As played, I fold the turn, given your read.

Why do you put him on an overpair or AK/AQ? He didn't raise preflop. Most TAGish players (correctly) raise these hands almost always. On the flop I'd much rather put him on 99, 88, 66, a flush draw or a straight draw with 77, although I don't know if he would bet this against 3 opponents.

Never show results!

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, agreed. you don't even have a full stack. at this point does it even matter where the money comes from? if you had a full stack, AND he took your money, then i can see targeting him. else, what's the point, you don't even have enough money to get his stack.