a hand from 1/2 razz

[*TT*]

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Rusty - the concept is being taken out of context, its not good to apply here. I'll revisit the thread shortly to explain why, not enough time at the moment. Thanks for the page #, I knew of the example but I needed to know where it is in the book to explain why its not applicable. I'll get back to you soon, sorry for the delay.

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So, any update on this?

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I was delayed thanks to a raging migraine yesterday and the day before, I have barely posted except when modding of the past 2 days - reading is hard because light hurts your eyes when you have a migraine. I'm feeling a bit betting this morning, I hope to have an answer for you after breakfast.

[*TT*]

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Page 127

When the pot is multi-way on 4th street you have a situation where if two players who have caught good cards and one has caught a bad card, both players who have caught good cards have the best of it, even if one hand is slightly better than the other. [skip a few sentences explaining why] Thus, if the player who catches a bad card is so stubborn as to stay in, you should put him in the middle if possible with your raises even if you have the second best hand. In other words, if one player catches a K and you catch a 7 and the third player catches a 6, you should never stop raising until the legal limit has been reached, because you are getting 2:1 odds on each raise, and you are not a 2-to-1 underdog.

[Edit: fixed a few grammar mistakes I made]

He goes on to explain that you would rather that the guy who caught bad folded, and tactics for making him call 2 cold, and advice to avoid getting jammed by other players when you have caught bad.

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1st we need to start with a little hand reading. Unless the (**)K8 is a total retard (which usually is unlikely when jamming occurs) he likely has a hand range is (4-3-)8K or better - hands like (23), (A2), (A3) are all slightly more likely in his range. Of course we are using results oriented thinking to determine this after the fact, but it at least helps us to determine a better sim so we will take advantage of that fact to help us explain the concept. Villain has around 9% equity with a range of (4-3-)8K, if we widen his range to (7-6-8) then he loses just 1% of his equity range which is mostly gained by the villain's hand range.

Now lets look at the villain. Assuming we were 100% sure his range is a wide (8-7-2)3 hero has 45% equity and should of course cap if we are sure the (**)8K wont fold - its 50/50, we are just adding his dead money into the equation. In that situation your absolutely right to follow David's recommendation.

However the OP explained that the villain is not a Muppet, he likely reads hands well enough to know he is ahead (unless he is misapplying the same concept of course). After his leading bet is called by the (**)K8 and raised by the hero he is unlikely to re-raise unless he feels confident he is ahead. Therefore its time for us to revise his range - lets assume his range is at worst a cleaner 7 (hero's hand is not that clean) or to be safe (6-5-)23.

At this point the equity range is

A627: 43%
(6-5-2)3: 47.5%
(3-2-8)K: 9.5%

from an equity standpoint alone I would still follow David' s recommendation to cap the pot. But since we read hands well we also know that although in a best case scenario the hero is a small dog, in the worst case scenario the hero has less than 30% equity - and of course thats assuming the hero is playing the hand to the river (which he will be doing if he inflates the pot). The villain's board puts the hero in a precarious situation because his cards are that much better than the hero's that IMHO the action on 4th street should go bet, call, raise, re-raise, call call unless the hero is going to close his eyes and see a showdown regardless of the cards on the following streets. The cap will only bind the hero to play blindly, and considering the equity share I'd prefer that the hero keeps his eyes open 5th-7th streets. If however the hero knew the villains precise range (which we unfortunately cannot narrow down by just calling) I'd advise just calling the 4th street bet because it will make the hand much easier to play on the later streets.

I hope this explains how I feel the concept is misapplied, we have to weigh out not only the hand ranges but also how the hand will likely play on future streets due to the villain's very strong board. Its a slim balance between capping and calling due to the paradox between equity range and the villain's added strength in playing the hand due to his board cards alone.

PS: I just re-read my last post and realized I made a mistake in my original post's explanation. Instead of raising I should have said re-raising.

[Praxising]

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Oh come on...

There is a perfect strategy in razz. There is correct and there is incorrect and nothing between. Razz is a game where you have to adhere to the percentages and as such there is a perfect optimal mathematical strategy in razz which is unbeatable.

By optimal, I mean a strategy that pushes every small edge to the max with no concerns of bankroll... if you have .00001% the best of it you should pump the pot.

Yes, you can could have a strategy where you only push bigger edges to cut down on the variance. However this is not perfect nor optimum play.

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Play as you like and believe what you wish. But also know, just for your own edification, that there is no such thing as perfect mathematics when describing any real world situation. Nor is there any "optimal strategy" agreed on by experts at Razz more successful than either of us will ever be.

[Praxising]

(I just wanted to repost TT's explanation with the OP so it was easier to understand and discuss. Hope no one minds.)
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any thoughts on the play of this hand?
seat 8 is drunk or stupid or something, seat 6 seems decent enough
b]Razz[/b] ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.40 SB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (3.90 SB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___raises___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls___calls

5th Street - (7.95 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (10.95 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

River - (12.95 BB)

Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (14.95 BB)

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1st we need to start with a little hand reading. Unless the (**)K8 is a total retard (which usually is unlikely when jamming occurs) he likely has a hand range is (4-3-)8K or better - hands like (23), (A2), (A3) are all slightly more likely in his range. Of course we are using results oriented thinking to determine this after the fact, but it at least helps us to determine a better sim so we will take advantage of that fact to help us explain the concept. Villain has around 9% equity with a range of (4-3-)8K, if we widen his range to (7-6-8) then he loses just 1% of his equity range which is mostly gained by the villain's hand range.

Now lets look at the villain. Assuming we were 100% sure his range is a wide (8-7-2)3 hero has 45% equity and should of course cap if we are sure the (**)8K wont fold - its 50/50, we are just adding his dead money into the equation. In that situation your absolutely right to follow David's recommendation.

However the OP explained that the villain is not a Muppet, he likely reads hands well enough to know he is ahead (unless he is misapplying the same concept of course). After his leading bet is called by the (**)K8 and raised by the hero he is unlikely to re-raise unless he feels confident he is ahead. Therefore its time for us to revise his range - lets assume his range is at worst a cleaner 7 (hero's hand is not that clean) or to be safe (6-5-)23.

At this point the equity range is

A627: 43%
(6-5-2)3: 47.5%
(3-2-8)K: 9.5%

from an equity standpoint alone I would still follow David' s recommendation to cap the pot. But since we read hands well we also know that although in a best case scenario the hero is a small dog, in the worst case scenario the hero has less than 30% equity - and of course thats assuming the hero is playing the hand to the river (which he will be doing if he inflates the pot). The villain's board puts the hero in a precarious situation because his cards are that much better than the hero's that IMHO the action on 4th street should go bet, call, raise, re-raise, call call unless the hero is going to close his eyes and see a showdown regardless of the cards on the following streets. The cap will only bind the hero to play blindly, and considering the equity share I'd prefer that the hero keeps his eyes open 5th-7th streets. If however the hero knew the villains precise range (which we unfortunately cannot narrow down by just calling) I'd advise just calling the 4th street bet because it will make the hand much easier to play on the later streets.

I hope this explains how I feel the concept is misapplied, we have to weigh out not only the hand ranges but also how the hand will likely play on future streets due to the villain's very strong board. Its a slim balance between capping and calling due to the paradox between equity range and the villain's added strength in playing the hand due to his board cards alone.

PS: I just re-read my last post and realized I made a mistake in my original post's explanation. Instead of raising I should have said re-raising.

[Reflux]

TT,
Nice post. I hope your post generates more discussion on this situation which occurs quite frequently at the lower stakes games that I play.

[RustyBrooks]

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in the worst case scenario the hero has less than 30% equity


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Actually, you're right. When I did a sim earlier for villain having A234 I probably gave too wide of a range to the 8K guy. If 8K has a very tight range, and villain has A234, we are in bad shape indeed. But if he doesn't, then our equity is always greater than 1/3. So I think this is really a crucial point. Also, if there is ANY CHANCE, like even 10%, that villain has worse than a 4-card 5, then your equity will be above 1/3, even if 8K is perfect. The K8's call on 4th is so irrational that I have trouble giving him credit for anything. OP also refers to him as drunk or stupid.

I think I see your point in this application. In Sklansky's example, you caught a 7 and your opponent caught a 6, and your hands are thus probably closer in value.

Does the fact that this is 4 handed not keep you from putting opponents on such tight ranges? People are going to raise more aggressively on 3rd with worse holdings 4 handed than at full ring.

[Davdob]

I would like to get the perspective on the fact that it was 4 handed also. I assume people are a bit looser, but I will be totally honest and admit I feel totally at sea when the table gets under 6.

[adanthar]

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Actually, you're right. When I did a sim earlier for villain having A234 I probably gave too wide of a range to the 8K guy. If 8K has a very tight range, and villain has A234, we are in bad shape indeed. But if he doesn't, then our equity is always greater than 1/3. So I think this is really a crucial point. Also, if there is ANY CHANCE, like even 10%, that villain has worse than a 4-card 5, then your equity will be above 1/3, even if 8K is perfect.

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okay, it's pretty funny that you're randomly scared of AAA in one thread and then autocapping with 34% equity in this one.

the trick is that equity in razz has no relationship to what twodimes says it is because it so drastically changes from street to street. the exception (which, admittedly, is really the majority) is when you have a four card hand and know you are seeing a river. this, however, is not one of those times, because if seat 6 catches a 5-7 on fifth and you brick you are probably better off folding. (sixth, like here, is prob breakeven.)

twodimes equity is all well and good, but gets you nowhere if there is a significant chance you will be folding the best hand or a live draw along the way.

[RustyBrooks]

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okay, it's pretty funny that you're randomly scared of AAA in one thread and then autocapping with 34% equity in this one.


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* Hero here is either a tiny bit ahead equity wise, or quite a bit ahead equity wise. In this hand, BOTH VILLAINS have to be perfect in the hole for hero to even be the TINIEST BIT behind. There is nothing to fear.
* In other hand, hero is either a bit ahead, or very behind. He's rarely a 2:1 dog but never more than a 60:40 favorite.

And our equity here, on average, is above 34%. I follow TT's reasoning, hand reading, etc, but I have seen this same hand go down enough times to know that your equity here on average is often more like 40% (I see no reason from action or OP's description of the xx8K guy to give him credit for 2 wheel cards down). And yeah, I'll auto-cap 3 way with 40% equity.

[adanthar]

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And yeah, I'll auto-cap 3 way with 40% equity.

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40% showdown equity doesn't matter. you want 40% fifth street equity, which is quite a different story.