1/2 halp, all streets

[gemmer]

I was a 1bb/100 winner this year for all limits combined but due to a big downswing last month and this month at mainly 100/200 I'm now at exactly 0.8bb/100 for 500k hands this year with most hands played at 100/200. I'm sure if you filter for specific limits/sites you will find these numbers you are talking about, although most datamining isn't near to 100% complete.
Well, enough defending of my position here [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] This thread was about a hand played against me, lets keep it that way.

otterkopf

[vmacosta]

haha what a sweet way to out your screename.

do you think the OP's flop peel is good vs. you?

[mntbikr15]

Thought it was common knowledge...

The amsterdam part sorta gives it away

[joker122]

regarding a turn cr:

"8.5% of the time we get 3-bet by 2-pair or better and lose 2 * .6 big bets = 1.2 big bets"

why is it .6? when he 3bets the turn we have at most 9 outs (if he's 3betting with top pair and doesn't have a heart) but probably more like 7-8 on average. so i'd say our equity once he 3bets is closer to 15% and thus the correct calculation is "8.5% of the time we lose 2*.85bb = -1.7bb"

"15% of the time he folds, we gain 80% of the pot ~= 4 big bets"

when he bets the turn there are 4.25bb in the pot so 80% is 3.4bb right?

"76.5% of the time he calls, and we lose 60% of 1 big bet = .6 big bets"

again, i don't see how you are giving us 40% equity on the turn.

when he calls we have at least 9 outs in the FD and probably an average of 3 pair outs so with 12 outs on the turn our equity is about 25%. so we lose .75bb we he just calls a turn cr.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
Our equity... is closer to 15% and thus... we lose 2*.85bb = -1.7bb

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math here is wrong, and here's a simple counter-example. Imagine that you had 50% equity when you were 3-bet... would you then lose 2*.5bb = -1 bb? No, of course not. You'd lose nothing.

The key is to realize that you hold 15% of two big bets, not 1... your opponent matches every bet you put in the pot. So if you put in 2 big bets with 15% equity, you hold 15% of 4 total big bets that went into the pot.

I got .6 by assuming you had 20% equity with your flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
when he bets the turn there are 4.25bb in the pot so 80% is 3.4bb right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You are going to call anyways, so you should include the 1 big bet you are using to call in the calculation. This is not a 2 bet bluff... it's a 1 bet call, 1 bet bluff. So you are risking 1 bet to win 5.25 big bets, not 4.25. (see my essay on semibluff equity calculations [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

[ QUOTE ]
...we lose .75bb we he just calls a turn cr...

[/ QUOTE ]

Like above. I'm assuming 20% equity, so we lose .6 bb when we raise and are called. Of course this % is up for debate, but to figure "bets lost" you multiply your equity by 2.


Hope that clears things up.

good luck.
Eric

[punter11235]

I elaborated a bit on Elindauer's analysis here .

Enjoy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CAMEL1111]

How is 1/2 high limit?

[Mr.Busto]

no reason to peel on this flop for sure. No redraw is getting the odds or payout it deserves. Just fold.
what happened at the river is why you fold flop
postion postion postion