top top w/ AQ in 3bet pot vs a fish and a tag (ugly spot)

[nextgenneo]

I'm probably around 19/16/4

Cold caller is 55/3/2 donk with a flop aggression of 1 and a frequency of 36%

Main vil is a tag playing 22/19/3 w/ flop aggression of 6 and flop frequency of 62%. His fold to cbet is 67% and raise 10%

Party Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $400
Hero (SB): $494
BB: $526.20
UTG: $760.13
CO: $119.62

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $14</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $50</font>, BB calls $46, UTG calls $36

Flop: ($150) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $111</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $710.13 and is All-In</font>, Hero has $333 left

<font color="blue">Am I right to think we have to value bet our hand vs the fish but fold to a shove from the other guy?</font>

[Albert Moulton]

You have 2.1:1 pot odds in a reraised pot. You need at least 32% equity to make a call marginally +EV.

"His fold to cbet is 67% and raise 10%" indicates that he probably doesn't have air or a weak draw when he raises your continuation bet. Hands that might be in his range that "hit" this flop might include QQ+,99-88,AcKc,AQs,AcJc,AcTc,KQs,QJs.

Vs that range, AdQd has 29.1% equity. So, unless you can widen his range for making this move, then a fold is marginally better than a call.

However, you can't make a habit of folding top pair in a reraised pot because if he ever "bluffs" with a hand like TT-JJ here, hoping that you either have a missed AK or will fold a 1-pair hand, then you are giving up way too much by folding. Vs a villain willing to push a little light sometimes, you have to call, but you give no indication in the OP that you suspect this villain to play like that.

[AcTiOnJaCsOn]

e z call imo once uve bet, if u werent gunna call this just dont bet the flop

[dd323]

I think you need to make a crying call here. Also, I don't think his flop statistics are that useful here, because TAGS tend to play differently in a re-raised pot.

[rand]

yo if you think what you said in blue is true i would have bet alot less than 111, like 78-80

but id prolly call this just because its what i do...i think its close either way

he can be getting tricky with an over pair by not 4betting it and he can have any of the sets and 88,99, the str8 or JJ TT sometimes

[HalvSame]

UTG probably expects you to have a pretty big hand here to c-bet into two people, when one is a donk (likely station?). Does he think you're capable of laying down one pair TP+ here? I actually think this is a fold, but very close.

I also like a different bet size, but I think I actually like ~135 better than a smaller bet, to max value against the donkey before uglyness hits the turn.

[Laetus]

I'm not very used to PAHUD... how is "flop frequency" calculated?

[homeboy604]

u have toptop in a 3bet pot. call.

[rand]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG probably expects you to have a pretty big hand here to c-bet into two people, when one is a donk (likely station?). Does he think you're capable of laying down one pair TP+ here? I actually think this is a fold, but very close.

I also like a different bet size, but I think I actually like ~135 better than a smaller bet, to max value against the donkey before uglyness hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

you have other streets to get value from the donkey, but if you are folding you loose less...