66 from BB on bubble: to pop or not to pop?

bschrade · #1 10-23-2007, 05:40 PM

180 person sng on stars, 19 players left, top 18 get paid.

hero is BB (t10000), villain is utg+1 (t58000) chipleader or close to it, blinds are 400/800 with 75 ante. Hero has 66.

villain is moderatley loose; however is more of a loose caller than a loose raiser, has minraised several times preflop throughout the tourney, and won the previous pot uncontested with a minraise preflop.

hero has a tight table image, although it admittedly might matter less to villain than others at the table.

utg folds, villain raises to t2500, folds around, hero ????

sorry no hand-converter.

brad2002tj · #2 10-23-2007, 05:47 PM

Push and don't lose teh coin flip.

Coz · #3 10-23-2007, 06:59 PM

Has villian folded to raises in the past? Do you know what kinds of hands he is raising UTG? Would he fold to a shove on a lot of flops. You have an M of 8. I put his range at 22+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,A9o+,KJo+,QJo,JTo, if you think this is accurate you have 48% equity in the hand, which means I would shove. If you are playing to cash fold, if you are playing to win shove. If you think he would fold to a flop shove, then I would call and shove any flop.

Pokerfarian · #4 10-23-2007, 08:56 PM

19 players ==> 6 or 7 handed ==> his range is weak enough for you to shove here, though it's close, imo
I hate a SNG in these spots, he so rarely folds better than 66 but does fold other hands on the flop which after the flop you dont want him to fold

hERESY · #5 10-23-2007, 09:26 PM

shizove

bschrade · #6 10-24-2007, 03:26 PM

he ended up having 88, i actually flopped a set, but he rivered an 8. I made my move bc I was playing to win, not just to limp into the money, but I actually think my play may have been pretty bad. I definetly want to try to be aggro on the bubble to gather chips for the final push, but I think i would probably have better chances being the first raiser, instead of shoving and merely hoping i'm flipping coins. I'd really like to hear some more input only bc I'm torn between trying to get a healthy stack by racing so that i can pick on the other players before the bubble burst, or to wait and take down a smaller pot by being the first raiser. I really didn't expect villain to fold a large percentage of the time here.

AJSucOut · #7 10-24-2007, 03:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he ended up having 88, i actually flopped a set, but he rivered an 8. I made my move bc I was playing to win, not just to limp into the money, but I actually think my play may have been pretty bad. I definetly want to try to be aggro on the bubble to gather chips for the final push, but I think i would probably have better chances being the first raiser, instead of shoving and merely hoping i'm flipping coins. I'd really like to hear some more input only bc I'm torn between trying to get a healthy stack by racing so that i can pick on the other players before the bubble burst, or to wait and take down a smaller pot by being the first raiser. I really didn't expect villain to fold a large percentage of the time here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a close shove but I think you're right about being first in rather than being 2nd in the pot. Just cashing isn't your main objective but in this situation where you're probably 50/50 at best and drawing very thin to over pairs there's not much incentive, IMO to pushing AI. The other reason is becuase you're playing against one of the chip leaders who will insta call a wide range of hands. Your stack is in near-crisis mode but not so small that you don't have any FE left. Get you chips in 1st the next opportunity and hope for the best.

Not focusing on the result I think this is an easy fold.

hagbard celine · #8 10-24-2007, 04:09 PM

Answering the question of whether it's better to 3bet shove without any FE, or to wait until you have the opportunity to open shove depends a great deal on your table.

If the players to your left are weakies trying to crawl into the money, then i think an argument can be made for folding in this spot, and wait for a spot to open shove.

However, if your table is very agro, and all ins are being called, then I think you just shove here and do your very best to win the race.

You should be playing for first. Winning one tourney > just making the money in like 30-50 tournaments (depending on the payout structure, I'm going off of a FT $10 MTT I'm playing now where 1st place is 53X the first payout).

hagbard celine · #9 10-24-2007, 04:10 PM

Or is this just a clear shove?

Gen Sterling · #10 10-24-2007, 04:39 PM

It doesn't sound like a call or shove, to me. Maybe an argument can be made to reraise about 4x his raise, but I don't think a shove is correct, and the 4x raise isn't either, here, because of Hero's short stack after the raise, and therefore being pot committed.

I like the pro's ideas of getting in the pot as cheaply as possible with small pairs (99 and under). The fact that there's a raise indicates that villain has better than a random hand.