10/25. Rate this bluff? What you think success rate is?

[Big Dave D]

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just realized some error in my logic though.. I would value bet KT here... yet I am trying to bluff him off what I think is a weak Jack, doesnt make much sense.

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and...

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pretty laggy player 60/30 ish... he seems a bit on tilt at the time

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equals a number of times approaching zero he will pass his trips.

gl

bdd

[sc000t]

I don't understand how you don't like this bluff. I think its necessary if your calling that turn raise, which I think is speculative to say the least.

I assume the opponent has a weak Jack as well, or is getting tricky with a AJxx type hand. But most of the time he would just valuebet a rivered fullhouse and we can't check behind here with so little showdown value so I like the bluff a lot.

A weak Jxxx hand doesn't beat much of the range he'll put you on after you call the turn c/r. I think he has to assume you're calling it with some sort of draw, Jack, or maybe an overpair + draw type hand.

Once you bluff the river, the only hands that the opponent can now beat in his mind are missed flush draws that are bluffing or some sort of AKQx dd type hand that decided not to check behind.

All in all, I think if the opponent is calling with trips he has to put you on a bluff that missed some sort of draw and there really arn't many hands that it looks like Jxxx beats in his eyes.

Bid Dave D makes a good point about him being on tilt, but I still like the bluff after the opponent takes this weak of a line.

Your bet sizing on the river is obviously dependant on how you've played him in the past up until this hand. You probably could sell a strong hand by betting less (around $1300) and save yourself $300 because I think if hes calling a $1300 bet here, that looks a little stronger and less pushy, then hes always calling a $1600 bet here that looks more pushy and less like it wants value...if that makes sense.

[gordo16]

I'll add a more detailed reply later on today, but I think that this is actually a pretty bad spot to bluff. The only hands that you are representing which beat villain are in my eyes AAxx and AJxx; Im assuming you 3bet turn with Qs full and are happy to check down 6s full on the river. Also, I think that this is a terrible spot to value-bet KT and I actually don't 100% believe you when you say that you would do it here. That being said, villain looks like he probably has a weak J, J6, or maybe rivered the KT str8. This is kind of weird logic on my part, but if he is a thoughtful, good player I think that he calls you here with almost all of his range aside from air obviously, whereas if he is a 'just play the cards' type of HU guy, then I think that this is an OK spot to put in a bluff. I just really think that you represent such a narrow range here that he has pretty good equity to call with weak trips, etc.

[cmyr]

I think villian could have any 4 here... a second barrel once the board pairs isn't an unusual play or anything. His lead, to me, makes it more likely he has a weak draw then a weak made hand, although they're both possible.

Your turn call is fine, since you're probably ahead. Once the Ace comes, I think his range narrows to a missed draw that's given up and is folding to anything, a weak ace that now wants to see the river, broadway that wants to see a river, or a monster that's hoping you've got enough of this to put in a bet.


As far as your range, it seems unlikely you've got two pair or a set on the flop, although you know this better then I do.

You may have broadway. You may have an overpair, one of just rivered the nuts. You may a low wrap that's missed.



I think what's important is what villian has led before, and how often he'd double barrel with not much. The hand you want to fold that you can reasonably expect to is a weak ace, and i'm not sure how much of his range that is.

[CrushinFelt]

His line makes the most sense for a weak jack that has shut down into c/c mode (and your current read makes it less likely that he's folding any jack on the river). I don't see any better hands folding (maybe a weak ace? I think that may be the only hand you're going to get him off of) or worse hands calling, so I think I check behind here.

[4CardGrind]

good thoughts guys thanks, obv my main qualm is I don't think I should be calling the turn. Any draw he might minraise on the turn, he would have c/r with on the flop I feel like. So that leaves only hands that beat me and complete air, I'm pretty sure anyone that minraises complete air here is going to follow through on the river.

Next time I'll try to stay out of the river mess hah.


BY the way, he called and collected with QJ.. I really feel he played his hand suboptimally as a whole because I very rarely make big bluffs like this, he should know that... and he misses value out of J6, 66, and AJ on turn... that said.. i walked right into it this time and he did get max value so well played eh.

[garcia1000]

What are you representing with your play?

If I was villian I would not know what you were representing... QJ? Would you bet that big on river if you were value betting a full house?

[Rob121]

if i was going to bet the turn here i like something arond $400. your repping a stuburn AA,, Aj, or a turned boat maybe k10. I think the best he shows up with here is J6,66 maybe k10 all going for a check call.