value shove v. hazards, HU 10/25...

[DJ Sensei]

smells a lot like trips/boat or bluff, shoving seems unnecessary. i mean, shove is only best against like, TT/JJ/semibluff that has odds to stack off, and thats a small part of his range.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

the way the match has played so far, he is raising a 5 on this flop a very large % of the time. i really doubt he ever shows up with a 5 here. playing Kx like this is very awkward.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems terrible vs hazards I would just fold the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

have you ever played him hu? 6max he is very tagish, but HU he is far more loose/aggro (in relation to others stats, not in a vaccuum).

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
smells a lot like trips/boat or bluff, shoving seems unnecessary. i mean, shove is only best against like, TT/JJ/semibluff that has odds to stack off, and thats a small part of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]

also, i am sorry if i didn't mention this, but he floats the flop so often in rr pots, that not firing this turn like this from time to time is asking to get run over (see the AQ hand where he floated with AT and picked up a T on the turn). So far in the match he has shown down two hands in rr pots where he floated the flop with A high. I think his range for floating this flop is any draw (gutter, oesd, any pp, and ace high). Not sure if he shows up with a random K here a lot, and I'm curious to see why he would raise a K on this turn. Generally I am folding all worse hands (this is from his perspective).

If I feel bluffs/semi-bluffs are a huge part of his range here, given stack sizes and board texture, is shoving or calling best? Or, is check-calling turn best? Chk-folding this turn the way he has been playing isn't really an option.

[Chaoslord]

check-call turn check-fold river loooks like the best play, once u check-call on the turn he should put u on a king and probably wont bluff river unless he got u beat

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
check-call turn check-fold river loooks like the best play, once u check-call on the turn he should put u on a king and probably wont bluff river unless he got u beat

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, in retrospect this looks a lot better. thanks. obviously i am trying to set up the dynamic where his floats are facing a lot more pressure in rr pots, but the K should be seen as a good bluffing card by him.

[klownage]

This is such an easy fold... yes shoving here is spew.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
also, i am sorry if i didn't mention this, but he floats the flop so often in rr pots, that not firing this turn like this from time to time is asking to get run over


[/ QUOTE ]

IMO the remedy to being floated lots on the flop is to check the turn with your made hands, not bet them.

[dlpnyc21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has afive and is hoping you're firing a king here on the turn so he can stack you, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no way he has a 5 here. he can have 77, he is raising this flop sooooooo often with a 5, look how deep we are, he wants to stack 77-qq and doesn't want to let a scare card off on flop this deep, and he would also want to build a pot. he doesn't have a 5 the VAST majority of the time. he could have 77, obv. obviously this is opponent and match-specific. but i am pretty damn sure he doesn't have a 5. he is not raising turn with a 7 unless it's K7, also probably not raising qq, i think u can also rule out mid pairs pretty much.

that leaves turned kings, turned FD, maybe 68, 64hh, and occasional aces/boats. and Ax he's turned into a bluff.

what now?

fwiw: i agree with chaos that this is chk-call turn/chk fold river. but i decided to bet turn.

[KRANTZ]

i would call the turn raise and c/f river if i played it like this