Kentucky Derby

phishguy · #1 04-22-2007, 11:44 AM

Who has been following the graded races???
I have been searching and searching and I really cant find anyone to beat Curlin. Even though he has only ran 3 races in his short year, he has won them all. Including winning by 10.5 lengths at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby.
My play, 5 horse super. Curlin, Scat Daddy, ?, ?, ?
I havent decided on the other horses, I "liked" Nobiz in the earlier part of the year, but winning at the Wood did not impress me much, he would have been beat with better company.

Bishop22 · #2 04-22-2007, 06:43 PM

I think Nobiz makes a step up in the Derby after some aggressive schooling to shake his greenness. Circular Quay should hit the super provided his doesn't run into traffic issues, whether he has enough to win would depend on the trip given his running style. Not a big Scat Daddy fan, I think Pletcher is going to have a rough day ala the 2006 Breeder's Cup, with only CQ showing up. SD was all out to hold off the likes of Notional in the Fl Derby with a sub-100 Beyer, so I am not impressed. Look for how Pletcher's horses run at CD the first week, I believe he had some medication concerns at CD and thus the subpar meet last fall.

There is no reason to bet Curlin on top, he will be a huge underlay, the fact that he was sold at a loss as a yearling with that impeccable breeding probably indicates he was not developing fast enough to be ready for a serious derby run, that he's come this far in so little time is impressive though.

In order of preference, Nobiz, Street Sense, CQ, Saturday & Scat Daddy; depending on how Pletcher is running at CD, I might move up Great Hunter and Hard Spun to super spots.

phishguy · #3 04-24-2007, 10:14 AM

I like your list, but I dont like any given saturday.
He has not impressed me much. I like Dominican, I had money to win on him at Keeneland last weekend.

I do like CQ now that you mention that, new order for the 5 horse box super.
Curlin, CQ, Scat Daddy, ?, ?

EJXD2 · #4 04-25-2007, 07:06 PM

Street Sense tops my list as both the most likely winner as well as the best value in the race. I think Street Sense has a better than 25% chance of winning the race, and he will be 9-to-2 on Derby day (assuming the other heavies stay in).

I will focus my plays underneath on the Pletcher horses Any Given Saturday, Scat Daddy, and Circular Quay. I'd like Circular Quay a lot better if he didn't miss the Wood Memorial. He's been off for eight weeks.

Nobiz Like Shobiz also merits some respect; Curlin, to me, does not. He'll be a ridiculous underlay.

lamboruns · #5 04-26-2007, 09:08 AM

i love Curlin..i am from ark..and the Ark debry winners have ran Kentuck very well last couple years..ie smarty jones and afleet alex...Curlin HAS to be a horse in any wheel or part wheel...

phishguy · #6 04-26-2007, 04:26 PM

I think I am just going to play a huge pick 3.
Probally will just wheel all in the kentucky derby, because there is just no horse I like the most.

Bishop22 · #7 04-27-2007, 02:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I am just going to play a huge pick 3.
Probally will just wheel all in the kentucky derby, because there is just no horse I like the most.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would highly recommend not wheeling 20 horses in a race that is likely to go to a top 5 favorite. Throw out Curlin and wheel the next five favorites, that should almost guarantee you a victory for 1/4th the price.

phishguy · #8 04-27-2007, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I would highly recommend not wheeling 20 horses in a race that is likely to go to a top 5 favorite. Throw out Curlin and wheel the next five favorites, that should almost guarantee you a victory for 1/4th the price.

[/ QUOTE ]
See the thing is I can make a case for the longer shots in the race Like Storm in May, Tiago, and Cowtown cat.
I just like every dang horse, but Scatt Daddy still the only one who stands out to me.

Holybull · #9 04-27-2007, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think I am just going to play a huge pick 3.
Probally will just wheel all in the kentucky derby, because there is just no horse I like the most.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would highly recommend not wheeling 20 horses in a race that is likely to go to a top 5 favorite. Throw out Curlin and wheel the next five favorites, that should almost guarantee you a victory for 1/4th the price.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very good advice.

Nobiz like Shobiz keeps looking better and better. There is so much to like about his chances. You have to use Street Sense too.

Agree that Curlin is a throwout. Of course it's possible he could win, but he is not bettable at all.

phishguy · #10 04-27-2007, 01:54 PM

Thanks for the suggestions, I planned on playing Nobiz, Street sense, and Scat Daddy in a tri.
But I think my major play would be the pick 3 3 runners/2 runners/ wheel all. After all I am not there to bet chalk, I am there to win some good money. hopefully a long shot will win the race and I should have a solid payout on my hands!