Jason Marquis perfect through 5.

[TheRover]

...and note that future=next start, which is the point here.

[Jiggymike]

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...and note that future=next start, which is the point here.

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Ohhhhh, I gotcha. Well I guess that's why they call them "streaks."

[DrunkIrish05]

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Instead of riding hot and cold streaks you guys could maybe take a look at players' peripherals? They are about the same as always except with less strikeouts.

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I just find with pitchers (for a one year league at least) it is largely a matter of riding hot streaks. There are tons of pitchers out there who put up similar numbers and with so many people in a league each having a ceratin # of pitchers, it will be hard to apportion all the good ones properly and keep a consistent starting rotation. Considering pitchers gets like 33 starts a year, riding someone for 10 hot ones seems like a fine strategy to me. I do see the point of not picking up someone with low Ks but right now my Ks are fine and my ERA/WHIP sucks. The second Marquis starts to play badly I will just drop him for someone else on a hot streak while I hold on to my other, more consistent starters. Is this strategy really that bad?

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Yeah, this strategy sucks hard. A "hot streak," as you define it, seems to be a pitcher with crappy peripherals pitching out of his mind for a few games. The problem with your logic is that you assume that because a pitcher is on a "hot streak" he is more likely to put in a good start his next time out. This is not true. Unless his peripherals have been better during his "hot streak" (indicating that some change has actually happened), he's probably just hot because he's been lucky. There is no reason to think his next start should be any more effective than any other random start in his career.


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It might and it might not. Most waiver wire pitchers are in the same boat, though, is what I'm saying. When the going gets rough (1-2 bad starts) you just dump him and pick someone else running hot. He may be "getting lucky" but I'll take his numbers for now, which are pretty good. Remember this is a one year league, not a keeper, I can pick up whoever I want to help my team for a short period of time.

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Again, this is terrible logic. You don't get a pitcher's stats "for now," you get a pitcher's stats for the future. Again, just because you think a pitcher is on a "hot streak" doesn't mean he is any more likely to pitch well again in his next start.

Marquis will likely get blown up his next start against the mets, he will then be like the most dropped player on yahoo. It's funny how people do this and think they are managing their teams well.

[Jack of Arcades]

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...and note that future=next start, which is the point here.

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Ohhhhh, I gotcha. Well I guess that's why they call them "streaks."

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Right, exactly.

With pitchers there's SOME predictive value to hot streaks. It isn't much and who knows why, but it's there.

However, in a case like this we're talking about a guy who's not overperforming their projection, but a guy who is pitching bad but getting lucky. There's a huge difference.

The reverse of a guy like Marquis is a guy like Aaron Harang who is pitching well but getting unlucky. See also: David Bush, Anthony Reyes