UTG pot raise, what do we suspect?

[uberpron]

In theory, how often do we put an UTG pot-bet on AA-QQ? Question concerns specifically, calling with JJ-99 + FD type hands when the flop comes A/K/Q, J, x, x. Do we immediately suspect set-over-set? And, if so, is the best preflop line to fold to these large UTG, UTG+1 bets with JJ-99 type hands?

Thoughts appreciated.

[Paul2432]

I thinks this depends a lot on the number of players. In a 6-max game a UTG raise can be any decent hand.

Paul

[uberpron]

Assuming 6-max - in addition, thoughts on how this translates to the 9handed game? I suspect that we're less inclined to take such a narrow range provided the odds against the hand at that point, but...

am I actually reversed in terms of logic on this line? In a full-ring game, do we actually suspect AA-QQ MORE often?

[WotaWaster]

I would prefer to raise 789Tds than KK32 from any position of any game. 9-10 handed even weak aces such as AA72r shouldn't always be raised from UTG. I think giving a range of QQxx-AAxx for an unknown here is inaccurate.

[Buzz]

uberpron - In theory, when you flop middle set, the probability any one of, for example, your three opponents who have seen the flop has top set is very approximately three times the probability one opponent flopped top set. Assuming no bias by any opponent who was dealt cards for or against the high pair that would have flopped top set, and also assuming you don't have a card the same rank as the top flop card, the probability any one of your three opponents flopped the nut set is:
6*42*41/2/148995=0.0346723.

Very crudely, since that number is fairly small, we multiply by the number of opponents who actually saw the flop to estimate the probability any one of them flopped a set, and then we round down a bit to maybe two digits.
Thus 0.0346723*3=0.1040169.
And then the probability one of three opponents has flopped top set is roughly 10%.

Then if UTG is the one who bets, and if the others fold, I think you presume if anyone made top set, then it was UTG. Thus the probability UTG has top set is approximately 10%.

I think 10% is a pretty good ball park first approximation for the one who bets having top set if three opponents have seen the flop. You refine that on the basis of your knowledge of tendencies of the bettor. Something like that.

Buzz

[uberpron]

Buzz - thank you for your well-reasoned response. This is a situation which I have found myself in several times over the same number of days, leading me to believe that my preflop play puts me in this situation more often than I'd like - which, incidentally, I never like.

It seems that, always getting 2-1 on a PLO decision such as this, I need to stop calling (or shoving over top of!) pot-sized bets with middle set, when A, K, or Q hits, especially on a draw-heavy board, as this pot-sized bet would seem to indicate top set looking to protect against big draws.

[alavet]

i dont think many players would even raise naked QQ in UTG 6max