Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[LuckayLuck]

[ QUOTE ]
if luckay is a villager and that list is fabricated, luckay = voted by me until he is dead for the next five games (Vendetta's excluded)
if luckay is a useless seer and that list is legit, and Durron confrims after the game, [censored].


[/ QUOTE ]

btw
these two things are the same thing

[Zurvan]

Luckay: you have one correct peek. So, why do you think you're a useful seer again?

[LuckayLuck]

Zurvan...I peeked Books to consider my real seernessness specifically because BluffBlank turned up village. IT MATCHES. WHICH IS INCREDIBLY UNCANNY. This peek is brilliant because it effectively gives us six peeks - Bluff's 4 + my 2, whereas before I thought I was useless yo.

[Zurvan]

[ QUOTE ]
Zurvan...I peeked Books to consider my real seernessness specifically because BluffBlank turned up village. IT MATCHES. WHICH IS INCREDIBLY UNCANNY. This peek is brilliant because it effectively gives us six peeks - Bluff's 4 + my 2, whereas before I thought I was useless yo.

[/ QUOTE ]

It never really clicked in before.

You think Bluff was a useful seer, who has NO dead peeks, and since two of your peeks are common with his, you BOTH must be useful seers?

That's possibly the worst logic in history.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if luckay is a villager and that list is fabricated, luckay = voted by me until he is dead for the next five games (Vendetta's excluded)
if luckay is a useless seer and that list is legit, and Durron confrims after the game, [censored].


[/ QUOTE ]

btw
these two things are the same thing

[/ QUOTE ]

no, they are not. One you are fabricating a list as a villager in order to stay alive because you have an exagerated estimation of your worth and the other you actually made those peeks and they came back the way they did out of chance. Important difference.

[LuckayLuck]

Zurvan: I thought Neil Stevens was a 100% Villager (thus I thought I was useless). I thought BluffBlank was a possible wolf so I derailed the Neil Stevens wagon onto him. So he died and was a villager. I...uhhh...didn't really pay attention to his peeks (don't sue me, you guys didn't either) until night and realized he had a 2-2 good/evil split. If I had realized that I would've screamed ZOMG DON'T LYNCH BLUFF (why the hell do you guys lynch a possible seer like that, let him live another day!)


I knew I was going to catch some heat today, so I went for the big "easy" peek to possibly confirm I was a seer or not - wdcbooks. This is because I had some belief in Bluff's "peeks" - kyro seems very village, fnord too.

I am like 95% certain that I am a real seer.



also...

[ QUOTE ]
Also, and this is [censored] huge:

WHY THE [censored] WOULD LUCKAY DUPLICATE BLUFFS OTHER WOLF PEEK LAST NIGHT?????? That makes absolutely [censored] zero sense. none. at all. We have a likely real seer dead and confirmed village. luckay is thinking he might be a real seer, too. Luckay knows he is going to be catching, rightfully so, a lot of heat, so he peeks someone utterly useless?


[/ QUOTE ]

THIS MAKES A LOT OF SENSE
If Books comes up wolf to me, then Bluff's other two peeks are a done deal. I absolutely do not peek books if I expect to have a long life expectancy, but after my Neil wrongness derailment yesterday night, PLUS the fact that some people were even skittering about my lynch YESTERDAY, I had to go for the instant confirmament if I really was a seer. To do that I needed to hit a wolf. I wasn't sure what the result would be when I hit books, but the fact that books returned wolf makes me pretty freaking certain I'm a real seer.

[Stephen H]

[ QUOTE ]
Bluff coming up village meant to me that perhaps he really was a seer,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry; explain this part to me again? How is Bluff a seer just because he was villager and clown lied about his day 1 peek?

Also, with 1 of your 9 combined peeks confirmed at this point, you're convinced that you two are, without a doubt, so certain we should be following your peeks, the 2 regular seers we had (I'd be surprised if we got 3 regular and 3 insane, but i suppose that's remotely possible)?

[Zurvan]

Books still hasn't given his last peek. Books? Hello? Are you out there?

I'm starting to think you're evil, too.

[LuckayLuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bluff coming up village meant to me that perhaps he really was a seer,

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry; explain this part to me again? How is Bluff a seer just because he was villager and clown lied about his day 1 peek?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bluff has 2 evil peeks and 2 good peeks.
I have 2 evil peeks (which match his) plus 1 confirmed dead good peek.

Someone who had 2 evil peeks / 2 good peeks has a pretty decent chance of being a seer. Hell, why are you guys all clammoring at me? Some of you consider him to be a seer. With the information I have from my peeks, I can pretty much know that he's a seer and that I'm a seer.


STEPHEN H: I have a counter-argument since your attack on me seems wolfy. Let me lead you through a train of thought.

1. Your goal is to peek someone who is a wolf, right?
2. So who do you peek yesterday night?

[Stephen H]

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't sure what the result would be when I hit books, but the fact that books returned wolf makes me pretty freaking certain I'm a real seer.

[/ QUOTE ]

There were 7 wolves last night, and 22 players. So about 1/3 of the time that you're useless, you're going to decide you are a real seer. I think you're at least 3 times more likely to be a useless seer than a real seer, so that puts you at, what, maybe 50% likely to be a real seer, IF we agree with your assumptions in the first place?

You're being absurd.