Huge Value in CFL

[coolmoedee]

I will say again, Winnipeg can't and will not win this game....you can't lose your starting and only good QB in the CFL and win. You need a QB more in the CFL than the NFL because of one less down. Many teams in the CFL have capable back ups but Winnipeg isn't one of them.

[Schwatt]

What would you put Winny's chances of winning at?
If it's less than 10% or so, then it is probably more profitable to hedge the Sask ML if it is around -400.

If your analysis is correct, it's better to lock in another unit or so, rather then let it ride and hope for a miracle.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
What would you put Winny's chances of winning at?
If it's less than 10% or so, then it is probably more profitable to hedge the Sask ML if it is around -400.

If your analysis is correct, it's better to lock in another unit or so, rather then let it ride and hope for a miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a serious question.

Why are you giving advice on this?

[Schwatt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What would you put Winny's chances of winning at?
If it's less than 10% or so, then it is probably more profitable to hedge the Sask ML if it is around -400.

If your analysis is correct, it's better to lock in another unit or so, rather then let it ride and hope for a miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a serious question.

Why are you giving advice on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to figure out if it is more/less profitable to hedge, and I'm typing my thoughts. What do you think?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What would you put Winny's chances of winning at?
If it's less than 10% or so, then it is probably more profitable to hedge the Sask ML if it is around -400.

If your analysis is correct, it's better to lock in another unit or so, rather then let it ride and hope for a miracle.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a serious question.

Why are you giving advice on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am trying to figure out if it is more/less profitable to hedge, and I'm typing my thoughts. What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you should stop posting your "thoughts" and perhaps read others thoughts on the subject of bet sizing. Maybe something about Kelly Criterion or hedging or... I dunno. I'm not even sure what some of the stuff you jabbering about means.

[Schwatt]

I've read some stuff on Kelly, but I wasn't a stats major so it makes my brain hurt. I tried using the fancy calculators at a few other sites, but I couldn't figure out how to do it. I asked for someone more well versed to chime in on this and got no responses.

1u at +950(Sask)
1u at +1500(Winny)

They play each other so +950 is a guaranteed winner.
Winny is an 11pt dog to Sask. The ML is ~ -410 now. OP seems to think Sask is undervalued at -410.

Gorilla math tells me:
Betting 5.5u on Sask ML would win me more money if Sask wins, but I would still win 9.5u if Winny wins(very unlikely). Obviously there is a point somewhere between 0-5.5 units bet on Sask that is most profitable, depending on how likely they are to win.

Using the current ML (-410) gives them approximately an 80% chance to win. OP thinks they are undervalued at that.
I know absolutely nothing about the CFL, so I don't know how to determine that.

If I thought they were 80% to win, wouldn't I bet 4.4u on the Sask ML( 0.8*5.5u)?

[NajdorfDefense]

You have a guaranteed big winner. Why voluntarily pay more vig? You're simply taxing yourself actual $$$$.

[Schwatt]

You're right.

In actuality, I'm freerolling on a +550 dog(Winny) when they are actually +410.

[MicroBob]

Too bad I can't bet on Pinnacle anymore.
I would play this game just to be able to say, "I'm playing Winny at Pinny"