Live straddle with A4s on the button, and QQ in which I knowingly suck

[Frond]

The more I look at it the more I like hand #2. I think you got through to SD rather well.

[elindauer]

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Should I even be betting this? I beat nothing and tie exactly one combination in her raising range. It feels wrong to not bet, though. I suck.

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Why even ask? You already know the answer. Check/fold to exploit opponent's terrible play. FYI, your bet is fine from a game-theory POV... you can't be exploited by betting. However, you are failing to exploit your opponent's highly exploitable strategy here, and costing yourself almost a full small bet of profit by doing so. Why break even when you have such a huge and easy profit?


Hand 2: Flop looks like an easy call getting huge odds to continue, especially with the table playing generally very passive, and the aggressor likely to have a very wide range. You should have an easy time getting your SB back with interest on the big streets (don't forget to mix in an occassional steal from the LAG with a hand that has decent equity vs his range considering the pot size).

On the turn, your call is look good considering the pot size as you have lots of outs to chop vs a better ace. If she has A9 for example, you have any 3,6,T,J,Q to chop (20 outs) and of course 4(3) to win. Plus, you are going to play the river almost perfectly (right?).

good luck.
Eric

[James.]

yeah, on hand two i just noticed that she could have as weak as A9 here(per your post). you need to call the turn because you have outs to draw. c/f the river UI.

[One Outer]

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Why even ask? You already know the answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it just feels dirty and wrong not to bet. Why ask? So you can say that to me and drill it into my head. Also, not that it matters but it crossed my mind, I'm essentially playing with my hand face up if I threebang preflop and check the dry K high flop.

[One Outer]

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This particular woman is so passive that her pf raising range is QQ+ and AK. She was the original raiser and I three bet. This is situational and based completely on my opponent.

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Was she likely to cap AA/KK pre ?
Does she flat call with AK on the flop or raise her TPTK ?

On the flop, against this villain, it is a safe b/f.

[/ QUOTE ]

She isn't going to raise AK if bet into, just call. The only hand she'll raise on the flop is a set and the only set she can have is KK.

I don't know about the capping. Generally when I come across someone this passive they don't cap KK and wait to see what happens on the flop. Some of them even do this with AA but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see her not cap w/ either. Also, capping is rarer preflop at CP because we have a 5 bet cap and the crappy players are leery of putting that much in before they've seen the flop.

[elindauer]

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[ QUOTE ]
Why even ask? You already know the answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it just feels dirty and wrong not to bet. Why ask? So you can say that to me and drill it into my head. Also, not that it matters but it crossed my mind, I'm essentially playing with my hand face up if I threebang preflop and check the dry K high flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

That only matters if your opponents will take advantage of it!

Yes, check-folding QQ on a K high board is highly exploitable. But that's the point. In this case, YOU are the one doing the exploiting.

Any time you take advantage of your opponent's poor play, you are exploitable. If you use "I can be exploited if I do that, so I better not" as a criteria, you will not make much money in this game.

I do think that it's good to KNOW that you're exploitable though, and to know what you should do against a tough player in this spot! Then you know just how far you are going when you check-fold QQ here (hint: really far)

good luck.
Eric

[One Outer]

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Then you know just how far you are going when you check-fold QQ here (hint: really far)

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I don't understand this part.

[elindauer]

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Then you know just how far you are going when you check-fold QQ here (hint: really far)

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I don't understand this part.

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I mean how far away from the "default play" you are going. QQ is nowhere close to a check-fold against tough players. So to fold it, you need a very strong read (which you have).

-eric

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm essentially playing against an old lady that will play any two broadways and suited connectors (up to even three gappers), one random hand and two almost random hands. I have to be doing better than 20% equity there, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

I did a Monte Carlo simulation on PokerStove vs a lineup of one player with a random hand, two players laying the top 75% of hands, and one player playing any pocket pair, any ace, any two broadway, and any suited connectors up to three-gappers all the way down to 52s.

After about 11 M games, your equity seemed to be converging at 21.5%, and you're going to outperform your equity because you have position and hopefully play better than your opponents pre-flop. Tighten up the old lady's range, and you do worse. For example, you get about 20.9% equity if you remove suited connectors with gaps from the old lady's range.

Generally, I think too many players play too loose and too passively against a straddle and I wouldn't mind adopting a raise-or-fold mentality in this spot pre-flop, especially against a straddler who three-balls it liberally (although I might consider call-reraise against a straddler who auto-raises).

[One Outer]

Thanks for the work. I would have thought my raw equity was higher than that but it's good to know. Of course, my position and skill advantage vs. these terrible players does push my equity significantly higher.