I just raise/folded my flush on the turn. Wow.

[Hamlet]

I play Canterbury $6-$12. I wouldn't make this fold against an unknown player.

I see an awful lot of goofball stuff in this game.

All we really know about this guy is that he is bad pre-flop. Check-calling with his first hand may have been because he is passive, or because he realized the bettor was bluffing and he'd make more that way.

If he limps UTG+1 with Q9o, I wouldn't rule out him raising A9s. I think we are going to see AcAx, 9x, and AcKx enough to call down in a big pot.

We don't know he's passive, we know he plays too many hands pre-flop (so do I). If he plays like me, you'd better call this bet [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Grease]

I have thoughts on every street.

I think calling PF is a mistake. I don't think it's hugely -EV, but it's still minus EV IMO. If you throw in some more cold-callers in there, then I certainly like a call, but if it's 4-way to the flop, I can't see you getting your money back with far the worst of it.

I like raising the flop for the freebie (I think it's probably EV neutral in a vacuum) but again, it's not a huge mistake to just call.

The turn, however, is pretty bad. Yes, there are people I would insta-muck this against. However, I develop a read on them after many hands, not 3. How often do people who are apparently "good" make mistakes and mess up hands? I know I make blatant mistakes a lot, and if I got caught and someone saw me, they might be lead to think I play differently than I do.

That said, I think you must absolutely 100% of the time go to showdown here against an unknown. If he has a flush or a boat, so what? If the biggest mistake you make in any given day is calling down with a big hand in a big pot, then I think that's a pretty damned good day.

[Hyperrrprank]

Consensus Formulated:
big hand + large pot + slim read + "big laydown" = -EV

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
That is a huge range to give an unknown preflop raiser in a typical live game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's not. Maybe wide but remove at most the A9 and QJ hands.

[bernie]

Since you've only seen 3 hands and him play 1, you also have to account for the possibility that he may have been adjusting to the other player during the hand you saw. After all, you've just sat down so you don't necesarily know the dynamic of the table yet.(unless you've played with the others before or something along those lines)

Still a good chance you're toast, but still not enough to fold, imo.

b