Daliman's Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2

Daliman · #1 09-12-2006, 01:51 PM

YTD: -$147
Teased games: 4-1 (80%)
2 Team Teases: 3-4 (.429) -$105
4 team teases: 0-1 -$42

Current BR: $1953

Bet on mansion lines. I believe the Bears, Vikings, and Seattle games may move, so get on these fast, ( especially bears)

Bears -8.5
Vikings +2
Packers +2
Seattle -7 ( home team, likely line move)

If you are playing exact same at home, bet sizes are $97 and $39.

Also, for future reference, I round down when there is remainder cents, and for 6 teams I will be betting 4% and 1.5%, 7 teams 3$ and 1%

Performify · #2 09-12-2006, 02:33 PM

I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

Daliman · #3 09-12-2006, 02:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Feedback is fine. I'm doing a very limited amount of capping in this, and this is not a case where I have a choice; it's a straight standard wong, and considered the most profitable one too; the home dog.

My only capping will be getting off the 3 or 7.

JJguy · #4 09-12-2006, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why seattle -7 is a good move? I'm still a sportsbetting noob.

I was considering AZ +7 cause I don't think seattle's secondary defense can shut down Arizona's passing game. Seattle will win, but the +7 makes it tempting to go with AZ. thanks

sfwusc · #5 09-12-2006, 03:30 PM

The whole system is to get the value of the 7 and 3 in point spread. Going from +7 to +13 has less value than going from -7 to -1. You got off the 7 can crossed back over the 3. On the plus 7 you only got off the 7.

-SFWUSC

Daliman · #6 09-12-2006, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I know what you're trying to do here, Dali, but i hate including the Packers in this.

The Saints pass defense is going to have a field day with Favre. I have this game as 24-7, moving the line to 24-16 still is way away from a predicted cover.

I love the Bears / Seattle play though.

Just my $0.02. If you don't want this kind of feedback and just want to try the system, i'll shut up in the future...

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain why seattle -7 is a good move? I'm still a sportsbetting noob.

I was considering AZ +7 cause I don't think seattle's secondary defense can shut down Arizona's passing game. Seattle will win, but the +7 makes it tempting to go with AZ. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, maybe I shouldn't have posted the regular lines, just the tased amounts. Teasing Seattle to only -1 is a good move if you are pretty sure they will win. If you are specifically asking an opinion the the line itself, this isn;t really the thread for that. Try starting another.

I think from now on, I will post my picks as "teased to" amounts like I did in Week 1. Sorry for any confusion.

Performify · #7 09-12-2006, 03:38 PM

First, we're talking about teasers. You link two games, move the spread by six points in your favor in each. So if you tease Chicago and Seattle you end up with: Chicago -2.5 and Seattle -1 as the lines, with the tease paying Even Money (or -110 on Bodog).

The most important value in these teasers is to cross the 7 and the 3, which is the system Daliman is playing here (he's playing all teasers that cross both the 7 and 3, and he's possibly playing those that end on 3/7.

I'm not commenting on Seattle -7 at this time, but I love Seattle -1 and I love Chicago -2.5, so I love the teaser.

JJguy · #8 09-12-2006, 03:48 PM

Sorry, I understand now. thanks for explaining.
like i said, I'm a noob [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

sfwusc · #9 09-12-2006, 04:13 PM

is Bodog a better deal than Mansion for me?

I might just do one that I like the best for a few units.

you get a 10% bonus.

1.1 at -1.1

Win you have 2.1 units with 2.2 unit WR (basicly 1x)

Can you arb the Bodog win for 4 cents or less?

Trying to get every cent I can [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

Daliman · #10 09-12-2006, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
is Bodog a better deal than Mansion for me?

I might just do one that I like the best for a few units.

you get a 10% bonus.

1.1 at -1.1

Win you have 2.1 units with 2.2 unit WR (basicly 1x)

Can you arb the Bodog win for 4 cents or less?

Trying to get every cent I can [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Bonus requires like 5x rollover, so no.

For 3 or 4 teamers, they're fine though, IIRC.