KQ on button - possible spaz villain

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
"I'm routinely seeing players dump open enders and non-nut flush draws in live play when facing two cold on the turn."

And they're doing this (i.e., folding) getting 14.5:2? (And yes, I realize that there's a possibity of a 3-bet behind them.) I don't get to play live as much as I'd like, but I've watched a bunch of donks call 3 in this situation.

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This isn't universal. It's something I'm noticing in my live game. A lot of these people are playing less than level 1 thinking and they don't care or know how big the pot it. All they know is that it's two cold to them and, in their mind, they don't have anything. I've seen people fold small flush draws for two cold getting, I think, 16-1. This isn't horribly common, but it works often enough at Canterbury to do it in spots like this.

Also notice that I'm doing this in a spot where if he does have an open ender, it's a one card draw. That's important for the fish in that the board is already scary.

[Hyperrrprank]

I think that some examination needs to be taken of the proposition that we prefer UTG to fold on the turn. It's stated that he could have ATC here, and that he is very loose. He's called 2 bets cold and then a 3rd bet on the flop, which limits him somewhat to hands that connected in with the flop. That makes his likely hands:

1. A pair of some kind, probably not top pair unless he is very passive.
2. A flush draw
3. OESD with a T
4. A gutshot with either a K or a an 8
5. Some combination of 1-4
6. A monster he is slow playing (very unlikely given action)

The only hands that we have any chance of folding with a turn raise are the gutshots and single pair hands, and maybe some BD draw/overcard combinations that our loose UTG has played too far.

Any hand that UTG has other than a gutshot or pair is likely calling whether we raise or not (remember, he is loose). Since we can't protect against the scarier draws UTG can have, don't mind a call from his weaker draws (we have the choice of offering 8:1 or 4.5:1, neither of which is profitable for a gutshot or single pair), and raising opens us to the possibility of getting 3-bet (and IMHO you cannot fold this hand), I think calling the turn is the better move in this case.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
The idea that you can't fold out flush draws and open enders has come up in a post I saw somewhere before but can't find right now. I have no idea where this comes from (online)? I'm routinely seeing players dump open enders and non-nut flush draws in live play when facing two cold on the turn.

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you need to understand that this is going to include such a minority of players that using it as an actual strategy in most typical games is going to cost you so much in the long run. what i mean is, if you think players are going to fold these type of hands to raises you are crazy. in your very game-specific instance it might be the case but in real life(by real life i mean basically every online and live limit and NL game i've ever played, heard about or been witness to) this isn't happening. it's almost a joke to think that it does or could happen on a regular basis. for that reason, you should relate this extremely isolated bit of info going into your post. since it exhibits a characteristic that is so rarely found in most hold em games in the world, it's something you certainly need to mention of give us the proper perspective of how this game is playing.

it's not that we have "the idea" that we can't fold out flush/OESD by facing them with two cold, it's the facts. in alot of the live games i've played it's tough to get them to fold bottom pair or a gutshot facing two cold(much less a quality draw).