Squeeze gone awry

stigmata · #1 11-06-2007, 07:37 AM

Stealer is TAG, Villain is a very laggy fish (like 60/40), but he's not stacking off with middle pair etc. He has folded to re-raises previously, I have been fairly quiet, so I though I could take it down preflop.

Standard?

Party Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $972
SB: $1,048.76
Hero (BB): $1,270
UTG: $5,864.08
CO: $1,058

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, BTN raises to $35, SB calls $30, Hero raises to $140, BTN folds, SB calls $105

Flop: ($315) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $210, SB calls $210

Turn: ($735) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $790

Laetus · #2 11-06-2007, 10:23 AM

I like it. The A is a good bluff card, even though a K would have been even better. Besides, would you have check behind on a blank turn or bet?

stigmata · #3 11-06-2007, 10:32 AM

i would have checked a blank turn. I figure if he has called this much, then he will be stubborn unless there is something to scare him.

Paul Thomson · #4 11-06-2007, 10:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. The A is a good bluff card, even though a K would have been even better. Besides, would you have check behind on a blank turn or bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the King a better card to bluff? Is it because everyone expects Hero to bluff the Ace or is it that an Ace makes up a larger % of Villain's range than a King?

Laetus · #5 11-06-2007, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like it. The A is a good bluff card, even though a K would have been even better. Besides, would you have check behind on a blank turn or bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is the King a better card to bluff? Is it because everyone expects Hero to bluff the Ace or is it that an Ace makes up a larger % of Villain's range than a King?

[/ QUOTE ]
An Ace makes up a larger % of Villain's range than a King actually.

Go_Blue88 · #6 11-06-2007, 11:05 AM

i play it the same other than the overbet on the turn...

i feel like by overbetting you give him a reason to convince himself that you're making a play.

stigmata · #7 11-06-2007, 11:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i play it the same other than the overbet on the turn...

i feel like by overbetting you give him a reason to convince himself that you're making a play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually 90% of the time I do this, I agree that much of the time you have more FE when representing a value bet.

Albert Moulton · #8 11-06-2007, 11:29 AM

You have to win 52% of the time for this to be +EV.

If called, a spade on the river will probably win 20% of the time.

So, you need more than 32% fold equity.

I think that a flush draw without the As is definately a good part of his range with which he might check/call the flop (i.e. KsQs). And you want those hands out of the pot. I think pairs lower than aces are possible (i.e. QQ), and you want those out too, if you can get them out when the A hits. And vs Ax and better, like JJ, you still have outs. So, your push should get rid of the higher flush draws and most 1-pair hands lower than aces, and those types of hands should be enough of his range to make this move marginally +EV.

The Velour Fog · #9 11-06-2007, 11:59 AM

standard, ~600 might look more intimidating though

stigmata · #10 11-06-2007, 02:31 PM

Well it looks like this was super standard as I thought.

Funnily enough, he had A9o and I got owned. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]