WSOPE Hand vs Townsend

[tsarast]

I agree generally that this is a good spot to fold/shove preflop. You risk 20k to win 5k, and i think he shows up with AA/KK pretty infrequently for a preflop 3bet.

Noone has talked about this, but... If you have been playing very tight/solid, then its possible he doesnt really think you are stealing, and will have a hand here, hoping that you will shove light and he will call (ie he has QQ, KK, AA). In that case, i'd actually lean towards folding. If you have shown yourself to have a little game, despite solid play, then i like a shove most i think.

Given that you called, or if you want to call, an interesting line to take is to check behind until he bets, then shove over a bet. e.g., you would shove over the 4k on the turn. Unless you are planning some shenanigans (especially on a board like this one...), just calling preflop is horrible here. You are definitely look at a reverse implied odds against a player like Townsend. This line is super gambly, but might work and you pick up more chips if you are convinced that he is light pre.

[LuckyLloyd]

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I agree generally that this is a good spot to fold/shove preflop. You risk 20k to win 5k, and i think he shows up with AA/KK pretty infrequently for a preflop 3bet.

Noone has talked about this, but... If you have been playing very tight/solid, then its possible he doesnt really think you are stealing, and will have a hand here, hoping that you will shove light and he will call (ie he has QQ, KK, AA). In that case, i'd actually lean towards folding. If you have shown yourself to have a little game, despite solid play, then i like a shove most i think.

Given that you called, or if you want to call, an interesting line to take is to check behind until he bets, then shove over a bet. e.g., you would shove over the 4k on the turn. Unless you are planning some shenanigans (especially on a board like this one...), just calling preflop is horrible here. You are definitely look at a reverse implied odds against a player like Townsend. This line is super gambly, but might work and you pick up more chips if you are convinced that he is light pre.

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I personally disagree with this. People have a tendency to flat - call three bets like he has made here with pocket pairs 99+ moreso then AK or AQ. As such, I'm not sure he is going to put chips in post - flop with the intention of folding - particularly given the stacksize. This is essentially a big part of our problem with the hand - he is going to own us pretty hard post - flop most of the time.

And if we flatcall and flop good, I think it's hard for us to get paid by worse; or make better hands fold when we miss.

Just get it in pre.

[Tyler Durden]

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hey did anyone notice if there were any limpers?

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wtf, there were three of them, can't you read

[flyingmoose]

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I definitely shove pre here against [b]any mothfcuker who seems the least bit decent at poker[b]

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[kenderworld]

I think some of you really like to gamble it up. Definite preflop shove on a draw in a nice big, slow tournament?! If you think you're that easy to outplay, dont play in a big tourney.


You say Townsend is a great player. Does he really think you raised three limpers with nothing? He very likely had a good pocket pair. Call, check blank flop (and be happy for free card) and fold blank turn. His flop check is not weird if he has pair and thinks you are very aggressive.


A-K is a primo shoving hand in a fast tournament, but I assume we are talking 100+ minute rounds, etc.


You also need to ask if he is going to fold 8s thru Js here on your shove. I doubt it. He has a lot of chips and an all-in looks a lot like what it would have been, a move (yes, one might well shove here with aces or kings, I know).


btw, I am not saying I hate re-raising all-in; I just dont think that it's the optimal strategy.

[nath]

okay that whole post is LOL

yeah, let's just throw away 1/7 of our stack 2/3 of the time because we're afraid to put it in

let's play "fit or fold" vs a world class player whose range here is probably very wide

[LearnedfromTV]

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If you think you're that easy to outplay, dont play in a big tourney.

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The point isn't that we're easy to outplay, it's that our stack size is easy to outplay, given these raise sizes. Part of the story is that he knows that, which makes it more likely he's making a move. The bigger part is that we happen to have *the* hand that is easiest to outplay in this particular stack size/bet size scenario (With something like JJ/QQ a line where we flat call could be the best way to exploit someone getting too out of line which this squeeze, and we can avoid being exploitable in this particular way entirely by making the original raise with a tight range (of course avoiding getting squeezed isn't our primary thought when raising, unless we know we're getting squeezed a lot)). We also have the ideal cramming hand for reasons we all understand.

So cram.

The tournament being slow is not an excuse for passing up the more +EV play to minimize variance.

[ZBTHorton]

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I think some of you really like to gamble it up. Definite preflop shove on a draw in a nice big, slow tournament?! If you think you're that easy to outplay, dont play in a big tourney.


You say Townsend is a great player. Does he really think you raised three limpers with nothing? He very likely had a good pocket pair. Call, check blank flop (and be happy for free card) and fold blank turn. His flop check is not weird if he has pair and thinks you are very aggressive.


A-K is a primo shoving hand in a fast tournament, but I assume we are talking 100+ minute rounds, etc.


You also need to ask if he is going to fold 8s thru Js here on your shove. I doubt it. He has a lot of chips and an all-in looks a lot like what it would have been, a move (yes, one might well shove here with aces or kings, I know).


btw, I am not saying I hate re-raising all-in; I just dont think that it's the optimal strategy.

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...is this a level?

[ZBTHorton]

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If you think you're that easy to outplay, dont play in a big tourney.

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The tournament being slow is not an excuse for passing up the more +EV play to minimize variance.

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[mikeJ]

Let out a big sigh. "Huuuuhhhhhmmmmmmm." Followed by a "really?????" Pucker your lips. Then after a minute or two, minraise.